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Is Dalton Rushing surpassing Diego Cartaya in Dodgers’ farm system?
While most organizations would kill to have a catching prospect of note with real upside in their farm system, the Los Angeles Dodgers have at least two that fit the bill in Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing.
Dalton Rushing vs. Diego Cartaya
Cartaya is well-known to Dodgers fans as being considered to be the Dodgers' top prospect overall by multiple publications thanks to an offensive tool kit that you don't see very often amongst backstops. However, Dalton Rushing has quickly become a guy that is making some noise of his own at the plate and is making a real run at being considered a better, or at least more certain, catching prospect. Let's take a look at how the two compare.
Dodgers' Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing are both mashers with some defensive questions
Let's get this out of the way: both of these guys are elite catching prospects and there will be no slander here suggesting otherwise. One of the things that both guys have going for them is power and plenty of it. Cartaya has power grades that range from plus to plus-plus, depending on who you talk to, and his 22 homers in 2022 bear that out.
Rushing may not have quite Cartaya's power upside thanks, in part, to a slightly smaller frame, but he certainly isn't up there at the plate looking to slap the ball for singles. He is built like a linebacker and his swing is geared to deal damage, but he also is very good at being selective on pitches that he knows he can do damage on. Through 25 games so far in 2023, Rushing has seven homers and is slugging .602 which, again, you don't see too often from catchers.
That said, both players also have some defensive questions. Cartaya is still very young, and while he has a cannon for an arm and a really strong work ethic, he is still working on moving efficiently behind the plate to best control the running game. His blocking/receiving skills are also still developing.
Rushing has a bit more polish to his receiving and blocking it seems, but he doesn't have as strong an arm as Cartaya and seems to be just "good enough" defensively instead of a standout defender. In short, Cartaya has more defensive upside to be sure, but there isn't much that separates the two at present.
Dodgers catchers' hit tools are where things get interesting
Again, we can operate safely under the assumption that Cartaya's offensive and defensive upsides are higher than Rushing's, as his physical tools are pretty ridiculous. However, the most important tool a guy can have, the hit tool, is where the argument for Rushing becomes more pronounced.
In the lower levels of the minors, Cartaya was aided by the fact that worse/less experienced pitchers struggle to throw strikes and were also probably a bit wary of his reputation. His strikeout rate was pretty consistently around 27% and he was drawing walks at around a 13-14% clip. However, now he is at Double-A, and while it is still early and a small sample, his strikeout rate has jumped up to almost 33%, while his walk rate has plummeted to 6.3%. As a result, he is slashing .186/.253/.314 in 18 games so far this season with just two homers.
Rushing, meanwhile, has performed much better, albeit against a lower level of competition in High-A. There, he has put up a .284/.462/.602 line with seven homers in his first 25 games of work with significantly better strikeout and walk rates. Some of that can be chalked up to competition level and small sample size weirdness, but Rushing's hit tool has consistently been graded higher than Cartaya's to begin with. He is selective at the plate, has better bat to ball skills, and is unafraid to draw a walk.
The end result has been, at least so far, that Rushing has been able to get to his power more in games because he is better at making contact. Between that and being a college draftee, he is on the fast track to joining Cartaya and getting promoted to Double-A himself, which will make things even more interesting.
In the end, there is still plenty of time for both Dodgers catchers
The Dodgers are lucky that they don't have to make this decision now. Will Smith is both awesome and under contract through at least the 2025 season, so the team has time to let both of these guys develop. Despite his struggles to start this season, Cartaya has enormous upside. The team clearly loves having him in the organization (trading Keibert Ruiz to allow him to grow) and are taking great care to make sure he develops properly at a position that takes a lot of time to learn.
Rushing, meanwhile, has been a very pleasant surprise as a second-round pick that has turned into a significant catching prospect who, as of this moment, may actually be closer to big-league ready than Cartaya right now, given the current hit tool difference. He can hit and hit for power, and there isn't anything defensively at the moment to make one think he couldn't catch in the big leagues.
There are reasonable arguments on both sides of this debate at the moment as to which prospect one prefers. Given enough time, these sorts of things sort themselves out. One thing is absolutely true, though: the Dodgers' minor league catching depth is in a really, really good place.