Dodgers Roster Bubble Projections: Who are the last three in, first three out?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers, for the first time in a long time, are turning over a number of their most prominent positions this spring. In addition to rebirth, that's also led to a lot of uncertainty.

Gavin Lux was supposed to grab the mantle as the team's everyday shortstop, but instead tore his ACL and LCL in Spring Training action (KFCBarstool probably still blames the issue on the World Baseball Classic somehow). Miguel Rojas will start in his place, with rookie Miguel Vargas taking over second base.

But which other unfamiliar players will be a part of the Dodgers' changing of the guard? Based on Spring Training performances, word of mouth and hints, we can fill in the rest of the outfield picture with at least some level of confidence. The bullpen? That's mostly guesswork. As of now, these three players feel like they'll sneak onto the Opening Day roster, shoving the next three off.

Honorable mention? Reliever Andre Jackson, who still has less MLB experience, and is probably another tier below this trio.

3 Players Who Will Be Left Off Dodgers Opening Day Roster, and 3 Who'll Sneak On

Last Three on Dodgers Roster: Jason Heyward, OF

Jason Heyward has all but guaranteed himself a spot on the Opening Day roster, according to Dave Robert (and per his long-lasting friendship with Freddie Freeman). While he's tailed off over the course of March while trying to translate his new swing to game action (eight hits in 38 at-bats, though two of them have left the yard), it's now very obvious the Dodgers signed him after already having bought in on the work he'd done (and the chemistry he'd bring).

Freeman didn't need to audition for a Dodgers roster spot this spring; he just needed to maintain one. He'll nab one of the final two bench spots. The other one will likely go to...

Last Three on Dodgers Roster: James Outman, OF

We can't do it. We can't knock James Outman off the Dodgers' Opening Day roster in favor of less-impressive roster fodder. Move Chris Taylor to the infield if you have to. Use Miguel Rojas a little too often before the deadline, then eventually find a replacement. Whichever way the Dodgers have to bend to create infield depth isn't worth sending Outman to Triple-A in favor of an inferior player.

Outman's .895 OPS and pair of homers are no longer absurdly gaudy numbers, but it's clear he belongs. If the conversation is between Trayce Thompson's seniority and Outman's potential ... we posit they should just keep both players and let things run their natural course. He's too talented to be demoted. He's too talented to even be among the "last three in"! But here we are.

Last Three on Dodgers Roster: Michael Grove, RHP

At the moment, Ryan Pepiot seems like a safe bet for the rotation spot previously occupied by Tony Gonsolin, who's on the shelf with a more-serious-than-expected ankle issue suffered walking off the field.

That means that the bullpen swingman role he probably would've otherwise occupied is now open, and we're going with the high-upside Grove to fill it.

At the moment, conventional wisdom states Grove is probably the odd man out of the rotation and might be out of the bullpen conversation, too, superseded by two struggling veterans. In our estimation, Shelby Miller will also make the roster, thanks to his major-league deal. The other veteran? Well...

First Three off Dodgers Roster: Jimmy Nelson, RHP

Opening Day roster decisions aren't made entirely on spring performance, but if they were, Jimmy Nelson would be unequivocally off the bubble and searching for his next professional endeavor.

The Dodgers have seen the 33-year-old Nelson through one successful rehab, but two might be too big an ask. His five outings this spring have been laborious; he's only completed 2.1 innings, hasn't whiffed a batter, and holds a 5.14 WHIP. 46 batters on base per nine innings is no way to go through life.

To his credit, Dave Roberts has kindly backed his right-hander in recent weeks, reminding fans what a slow play this was always intended to be.

We’ve all got to be mindful that this guy hasn’t pitched in almost two years. So there’s the structural part. He’s got a new arm. What was normal to him back then is not normal now. … It’s a process. So that was kind of my message to Jimmy. And every athlete wants to kind of be good right now. But just understanding that it’s coming, and it’s just gonna take some time.
Dave Roberts, to the OCR

That said, the season is nigh, and the Dodgers are running out of time. This might not be a fair fight, but it does seem to be nearly over.

First Three off Dodgers Roster: Victor González, LHP

It also seems likely that the impressive tale of Dodgers lefty Victor González, including a rapid rise into key bullpen innings during the 2020 postseason and World Series, may be ending prematurely.

Injury issues derailed González's 2021 season and left his 2022 campaign empty. Now, almost two years removed from his most recent meaningful innings, he's struggled through the spring, with a 13.50 ERA in 3.1 innings (with four strikeouts).

MLB.com's projection and most recent roster discussions don't mention González, and it feels as if he's officially on the outside looking in. "Last Three Out" might even be a bit too generous.

First Three off Dodgers Roster: Yonny Hernández, IF

And now, our infield casualty, thanks to the over-stuffed outfield picture.

For the purposes of this exercise, we almost have to consider Taylor to be an infielder, primarily, as he'll be scrambling to back up a number of positions (and Hernández will certainly be at the Dodgers' beck and call at Triple-A). Hell, Mookie Betts would like to be considered a second baseman on occasion, too, and probably will be. He can certainly handle the position, considering that's where he was raised.

Carrying Hernández, a largely-punchless bat, over Outman could be considered malpractice by a lesser organization, though. Without All-Stars like Justin Turner, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson, as well as consistent option Kiké Hernández, the Dodgers no longer have roster spots to waste. Their 26th man had better contribute, and it had better be Outman over Hernández.

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