Dodgers Rumors: Roki Sasaki buzz could benefit LA

This coming offseason's free agent crop features a ton of heavy hitters. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, (probably) Blake Snell, Max Fried, and so on, will all be available one way or the other. The chase for Soto in particular is sure to be protracted and ugly; if anyone has even a remote chance to break Shohei Ohtani's record for the biggest contract in professional sports, it's Soto.

However, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto before him, there is another young Japanese phenom pitching in NPB, who MLB teams (including and especially the Dodgers) have already been champing at the bit to sign. There are a couple of problems, though: Roki Sasaki is just 22 years old and has only pitched four years in NPB. Per Japanese posting rules, a player must be either 25 or have a minimum of six years of service time in order to qualify as a fully fledged free agent instead of an amateur.

Sasaki could always leave NPB before he meets either of those minimum requirements, like Shohei Ohtani did, but doing so would mean that both Sasaki and his NPB team (the Chiba Lotte Marines) would receive an exponentially smaller amount of money for letting him go than they would get if they waited.

During the offseason, especially after both Ohtani and Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, it looked like Sasaki was trying to get to MLB as soon as he possibly could. Although there was reportedly a disagreement between him and the Marines about when he would be posted that led to Sasaki dragging his feet on signing a new contract, he did eventually sign, meaning interested MLB teams would have to wait another season.

Now, it actually looks like they might have to wait another year entirely. Per Bob Nightengale, NPB club executives believe that Sasaki may be inclined to spend another season in Japan.

Japanese pitching phenom and Dodgers free agent target Roki Sasaki may not be available in the offseason after all

Sasaki not wanting to come over this offseason could be because his performance has dipped this season. He's still maintaining a 2.20 ERA, but has a career low 4.10 K/BB rate and has only pitched 71 innings this season as he's dealt with unspecified arm issues. If Sasaki were to be posted as an amateur free agent, he and the Marines would have to accept a comparatively tiny contract to what he could get as a professional free agent. There is a chance that MLB teams could try to underpay, given his struggles and injuries this season.

Although it's clear that the Dodgers really want Sasaki, waiting another year might not be the end of the world. Let him work out the kinks in Japan and make sure that he's as injury-free as he possibly can be before entering into the bidding war for him. If he comes over as an amateur, it'd be less about the actual dollar amount than the kind of courting MLB teams could put on for him, but the Dodgers should save that for when they're sure he'll be able to perform.

Although other competitors have emerged, the Dodgers still seem like the clear frontrunners for Sasaki when he does eventually come over. He's only 22, so the Dodgers should probably stay patient on this one and let him develop.