Dodgers Top Prospects Update: Where are the top six, and how have they performed?

Entering the 2023 MLB season, Miguel Vargas was the Dodgers' No. 3 prospect (MLB No. 37), Ryan Pepiot was the Dodgers' No. 6 prospect (MLB No. 71) and James Outman was ranked No. 9 in the Dodgers' farm, according to MLB Pipeline. All three were projected to make the Dodgers' Major League roster by the end of Spring Training, and they were slated to make major contributions in 2023. While Vargas and Outman have now played enough games to graduate from prospect status, Pepiot has yet to appear in a game this season due to a left oblique strain.

But Vargas, Outman and Pepiot are just three jewels of the Dodgers' vaunted farm system. Entering the season, they were three of the Dodgers' top nine prospects, as well as projected big-league contributors, indicating the Dodgers shifting towards a bit of a youth movement. That movement is not lacking in talent, either. The Dodgers have been the No. 2 farm system in both MLB Pipeline's 2022 midseason and 2023 preseason rankings, and that talent has finally started to get their chances at the majors this season, especially after various Dodgers injuries this season.

Five of the Dodgers' top six prospects have MLB ETAs of 2023, so outside of Vargas and Outman, where are the Dodgers' top prospects playing, and how are they performing?

No. 1: Diego Cartaya (Double-A Tulsa)

When the Venezuelan-born Cartaya was signed for a $2.5 million signing bonus by the Dodgers in 2018, he was MLB Pipeline's top-ranked international amateur in the class. After a slow start to his career, Cartaya has been tearing up the minor leagues. In 2019, he debuted in rookie ball with mixed results. In 49 games, he posted a .281 average, but only 18 of his 52 hits went for extra bases. With a 2.63 strikeout/walk ratio, his power wasn't quite enough to counter his tendency to strike out.

He has ascended MLB Pipeline's rankings, becoming the No. 12 overall prospect in the minors, as well as the Dodgers' No. 1 Prospect. But how has he done it? Immediately after the break in minor league action in 2020, Cartaya went on a torrid run, and the stats speak for themselves. In 2021, Cartaya played 31 games for the Dodgers' Single-A affiliate Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, posting a 1.023 OPS with 16 extra-base hits (including 10 home runs).

In 2022, Cartaya played in 95 games (33 for the Quakes and 62 for the High-A Great Lakes Loons), posting a combined .892 OPS with 22 home runs, 22 doubles and 72 RBI. Cartaya still had a high strikeout rate, but was more patient at the plate, ending the season with a 1.89 strikeout/walk ratio. In 2023, Cartaya has struggled at Double-A, but his talent is undeniable and with an MLB ETA of 2024, he has plenty of time to figure things out before getting called up to Triple-A, and eventually the majors.

No. 2: Bobby Miller (MLB)

Miller is the Dodgers' No. 2 prospect, and currently accompanies Cartaya as the Dodgers' two top-20 overall prospects. Miller joined the Dodgers' system via the 2020 MLB Draft, where the Dodgers used their first-round selection, the 29th overall pick, to draft the right-handed flamethrower out of Louisville. In the minors, Miller used his velocity to quickly climb the ranks of the Dodgers' farm system.

In 2021, Miller posted a 1.91 ERA in 47.0 innings of work for the Dodgers' High-A affiliate (Great Lakes Loons), earning a promotion to the Double-A Tulsa Drillers before the end of the season. While Miller wasn't as dominant in the 2022 season in Double-A as he had been at the High-A level in terms of run prevention (he had a 4.45 ERA in 91.0 innings), his strikeout rate (11.6 K/9) was elite, and earned him another promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City before the end of the 2022 season. At the end of 2022, in just four appearances for the Oklahoma City Dodgers, Miller was impressive. He posted a 3.38 ERA in 21.1 innings, and despite facing better hitters, his strikeout rate (11.8 K/9) increased. Miller gave up three or more runs in two of his four Triple-A appearances at the start of 2023, but pitched six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts in his last appearance.

Due to injuries throughout the Dodgers' starting rotation (Dustin May and Julio Urías, namely), Miller was called up to the major league roster, perhaps before Dodgers fans had initially anticipated. His four-seam fastball has averaged 99.3 MPH in the majors, and style points from velocity aren't his only positive results. In his short stint in the majors, Miller has been nothing short of sensational. In 11.0 innings, Miller has nine strikeouts, only two walks, and -- most importantly -- he has only given up two earned runs on eight hits. The Dodgers have won both of his starts so far, and Miller has earned the right to keep his spot in the rotation, at least until May comes back.

No. 3: Michael Busch (Triple-A Oklahoma City)

Busch was drafted with the Dodgers' first-round pick a year before Miller (he was the 31st overall pick in 2019), but both entered the year with the same MLB ETA of 2023. Both have delivered on that ETA, spending short stints with the MLB club so far.

In 2019, Busch had a rough start to his minor-league career, but just like Cartaya, immediately after the 2020 break from minor league action, he began to tear up the minors. In 107 games in 2021 at Double-A Tulsa, Busch posted an .870 OPS with 48 extra-base hits (27 doubles, 20 home runs and one triple) and 72 RBI. In 31 games at Double-A in 2022, Busch posted a 1.112 OPS with 11 home runs and six doubles, outright forcing the Dodgers to promote him to Triple-A Oklahoma City. In 111 games at the Triple-A level, Busch adjusted well, posting an .823 OPS with 53 extra-base hits (32 doubles, 21 home runs) and 79 RBI.

In 2023, Busch's OPS currently sits at .815 with a .408 OBP and .408 SLG. His slugging numbers are down from prior seasons, but his OBP proves that he has sacrificed some power to get on base more frequently. Busch was given his first crack at facing major-league pitching when Max Muncy was put on the paternity list, and his MLB stay was extended by J.D. Martinez's stint on the IL. Busch delivered his first career RBI with a single as part of a five-run comeback against the Pirates on April 25. He had a two-hit game against the Phillies and came through in the clutch with a go-ahead, two-out RBI single against the Padres in the 10th inning of a Dodgers comeback victory in San Diego.

Overall, Busch went 4-for-19 with two RBI, four walks and five runs scored in his first major-league stint before he was sent back down to Triple-A. Busch is arguably the Dodgers' No. 1 option for a call-up in case of any more injuries this season.

No. 4: Gavin Stone (Triple-A Oklahoma City)

Stone has been strong at all levels of the minor leagues after being selected with the Dodgers' fifth-round pick (159th overall) in 2020 out of Central Arkansas. It is safe to say that as a fifth-round pick, Stone wasn't destined for stardom in MLB out of the gates, but after proving his worth in the minors, he has worked his way up to the No. 43 overall prospect ranking in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

Stone wasn't even among the Dodgers' top 30 prospects at the end of 2021, but he pitched fantastically across multiple levels in 2022 to eventually climb in the rankings. He started 2022 in High-A, but after posting a 1.44 ERA in 25.0 innings, he was promoted to Double-A. In Double-A, he posted a 1.60 ERA in 73.1 innings with 107 strikeouts (13.1 K/9). That performance prompted one more promotion to Triple-A, where Stone posted a 1.16 ERA in 23.1 innings with 33 strikeouts (12.7 K/9).

Stone carried that momentum into spring training in 2023, tossing 6.2 scoreless innings with a whopping 14 strikeouts (18.9 K/9). His spring performance left many fans upset when he was omitted from the Opening Day roster, especially given Pepiot's injury. Stone has been great in the minors again this season, but has struggled when called up to the major league roster. It has really been a story of only a few rough innings, but in his first career start against the Phillies, Stone gave up four earned runs (all in the third inning) in four innings of work.

In wake of Julio Urías' injury, Stone was called up once again to face the great lineup of the Braves. In this start, he went four innings, giving up five earned runs. The first inning was his kryptonite, as he gave up four of those runs in that first inning. Against the Rays, Stone struggled once more, giving up seven earned runs in two innings, with six of those runs coming in the second inning. Stone's success in the minors and in spring training was spurred by an elite strikeout rate, but in his ten MLB innings, he only has five strikeouts. If he can't find a way to strike out major league hitters, he will continue to struggle. That's why the Dodgers have sent him down to the minors to see if he can find that same strikeout magic that he had in the past.

No. 5: Ryan Pepiot (MLB)

As discussed earlier, Pepiot has yet to make an appearance this season due to a left oblique strain. Originally, Pepiot was placed on the 15-day injured list, but he was transferred to the 60-day injured list on April 21. His original injury timeline placed his expected return somewhere in June, but his timetable has been pushed back once again, with Dave Roberts now saying he may be held out until after the All-Star break. Pepiot was pitching through his injury in spring training, which led to some inconsistencies, but he has already made multiple major league appearances for the Dodgers, and he will be ready to return to the majors whenever he is healthy.

In 2022, Pepiot had a great year at multiple levels. He had a 2.56 ERA in 91.1 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City, leading to his numerous call-ups to the major league roster in 2022. In those opportunities in the majors, Pepiot was able to continue his success. He had some issues with walks that plagued him in his rough outings in the majors, but Pepiot ended a solid debut season with a 3.47 ERA in 36.1 innings of combined work out of the bullpen and as a starter. Pepiot will graduate from prospect status soon after he comes back from the IL if he makes appearances in the majors, and he could be a very important part of the Dodgers' rotation down the stretch, especially if Noah Syndergaard continues to struggle and the Dodgers do not make a move to get another starter at the trade deadline.