It took until May 7, but the Milwaukee Brewers finally got their first win of May. They are still a half game back of Pittsburgh in the NL Central, but will be happy to get home after a 1-5 west coast road trip. Milwaukee is 19-15 and now will host the 21-14 Los Angeles Dodgers who have a game and a half lead over the NL West. LA took two of three from San Diego over the weekend.
Today for Game 1 the Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin who has no record, but a 3.38 ERA in two starts. The Brewers will counter with 3-2 Freddy Peralta with his 3.63 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for this NL matchup in Milwaukee.
Dodgers vs. Brewers odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction and pick
It's been a really rough stretch for the Brewers, but their numbers really don’t look that bad over the past week. In that stretch they are 19th in OPS and 18th in ERA. That’s certainly not great, and maybe not close to enough to beat the Dodgers, but that’s not the makings of a 1-5 record against the Rockies and Giants, who are both under .500.
Freddy Peralta has been one of Milwaukee’s most reliable pitchers for the season and in this stretch. On the road trip he had a strong six inning start against the Rockies, but the Brewers lost 3-2. One of the biggest issues for Milwaukee’s pitching staff is that they aren’t getting enough strikeouts and that’s the case for Peralta as well.
He has a 27.9 strikeout percentage which is the second lowest of his career. It is still 74th percentile in the league, but down from his best years and with that his ERA is up from those campaigns.
The Brewers as a whole are 25th in strikeouts this season and the Dodgers have struck out the third fewest times. That’s not a good mix because the Dodgers will be able to grind at-bats and put runners on.
LA has the fourth best OPS with runners in scoring position this season, .838, and if the Brewers can’t get strikeouts, then they can’t get out of jams.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change