It seems like the rest vs. rust debate has been settled in the MLB postseason. The teams that came through the Wild Card round seem to be having a lot of success in the Divisional Series and that includes the Arizona Diamondbacks who are up 2-0 on the LA Dodgers.
Game 3 is in Arizona and the Diamondbacks will send their rookie, Brandon Pfaadt to the mound against Lance Lynn, the Dodgers deadline acquisition. Pfaadt posted a 5.72 ERA across 18 starts and on relief appearance this year while Lynn finished with a 5.73 ERA in 32 starts.
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Now, let’s dig into the odds for this Divisional Series matchup.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick
This matchup on the mound might get a little bit dicey, especially with the Dodgers trailing in the series and facing elimination. Dave Roberts won’t be able to hold anything back, so he’ll have a quick hook with Lance Lynn. That’s probably a good thing.
Lynn was better since joining the Dodgers, but that doesn’t mean he was good. He posted a 4.36 ERA in his 64.0 innings as a Dodger, but his strikeouts per nine was a pedestrian 6.61 with 3.09 walks per nine and he gave up 16 home runs. His FIP was 6.16 and if that regression hits at the wrong time, the Dodgers will be headed home.
The good news for LA is that the Dodgers bullpen was one of the best in the MLB this season. LA relievers posted a 3.42 ERA which was third in baseball and best of any team remaining with a 3.73 FIP which was second best in the regular season. For the postseason the pitching staff has a 7.50 ERA, but that’s just in two games.
Corbin Carroll is a big reason why LA’s pitchers have struggled, but it’ll be the other rookie that will cost Arizona. Pfaadt is more of a glorified opener and last round the Diamondbacks were able to win when he took the mound, but he allowed three runs over 2.2 innings of work. The Arizona bullpen finished the year 18th in ERA with a FIP of 4.10.
With this becoming a bullpen game, I’ll back the Dodgers, especially with their backs against the wall. The Diamondbacks can hold something back, but LA doesn’t have that luxury.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change