Dodgers vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 19

Wednesday is getaway day in Baltimore as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles wrap up their three-game series in the afternoon. The Dodgers will head southwest to Texas for three with the Rangers, while the Orioles will head straight down south for a four-game showdown with the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays.

Baltimore can’t get caught looking ahead to that big series because the Dodgers have a revitalized Julio Urías on the mound. Urias is 7-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 13 starts this year and is coming off his best outing of the season. Baltimore will counter with 10-4 Dean Kremer, who carries a 4.59 ERA in his 20th start of the season.

The Dodgers are road favorites in this one, so let’s check out the odds. 

Dodgers vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Dodgers vs. Orioles prediction and pick

Julio Urias was excellent last time out, going six innings and allowing no runs on just one hit against the Mets. He’s primed for an excellent second half of the year after a shaky first half. 

Urías has a 3.85 expected ERA, which is down from his 4.06 xERA prior to last start, but remains much worse than his 2.16 ERA and 2.81 xERA last season. His walk rate has improved from last year and his strikeout rate has dropped, but by a very insignificant amount (24.1% to 23.7%). His hard-hit rate is only slightly worse, but is still in the 85th percentile, yet his barrel rate is 3% higher and his expected slugging sits in the 24th percentile. He has allowed 14 home runs in 13 starts, though he has surrendered 19 and 23 home runs in his last two seasons, so that’s not a drastic change. The difference is the amount of hits he is allowing: 8.7 per nine innings, his most since 2017 and 2.2 more than last year. 

The biggest difference for Urías is his batting average on balls in play, which is .277 and way up from .229 last year. It’s hard to find a noticeable difference in Urías in terms of his usage and the movement of his pitches. They’re all right in line with last year, so I don’t see a reason that the second half won’t be much better. He showed last time out that he’s still an ace and he’ll do it again facing Baltimore. I’ll take the Dodgers to win this one. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change