The Los Angeles Dodgers are three games off the NL West lead as the team heads to Colorado for a three-game series against the Rockies.
Clayton Kershaw is slated to start for this one, fresh off a shutout outing against the Angels. Can he avoid the hitter-friendly conditions at Coors Field en route to another strong outing? The Dodgers lineup will have a clear edge over Rockies starter Connor Seabold, but can Kershaw keep this under the double-digit total?
Here's our breakdown for Dodgers vs. Rockies:
Dodgers vs. Rockies odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction and pick
Seabold is as up-and-down as it comes this season, but the real issue is that he can't generate strikeouts at a high clip. He is punching out fewer than seven batters per nine innings and walking more than three.
He will face a Dodgers lineup that is only hitting .227 in July, but at Coors Field I don't trust Seabold to hold off the bats of Los Angeles with his alarming fly ball rate of 65%. Further, he is allowing home runs on 13% of those fly balls.
The reason for the over, though, is Kershaw's underlying metrics. The left hander is on a run of good form, but his xERA is nearly a run higher than his actual ERA (3.51 vs. 2.72). Kershaw has stranded 84% of runners on base, but that's an unsustainable mark that can lead to issues against a Rockies team that is predictably far better at home at the plate. Colorado is hitting .278 at Coors Field this season.
The Dodgers are the superior team, but I think we see plenty of runs from both sides on Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.