Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction and odds for Wednesday, June 28

Michael Grove's ERA is concerning, but will it matter when the Dodgers take on the NL West's last place team Rockies? Our expert betting breakdown:

Jun 15, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Michael Grove (78)
Jun 15, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Michael Grove (78) / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Dodgers took care of business in the opening game of its weekday series against the Rockies, 5-0, can the team expect more of that in Colorado?

Grove will look to settle in after a string of poor starts this season that has seen his ERA balloon to 7.59 on the year. However, are some of his metrics overblown? Let's dive in by checking out this Wednesday night matchup with Kyle Freeland starting for the Rockies:

Dodgers vs. Rockies odds, run line and total

Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction and pick

Grove's ERA is inflated behind an early season start against the Diamondbacks in which he allowed nine earned runs in over three innings of work. He has had limited opportunities this season, only eight appearances, but his xERA is more than two runs lower (7.59 vs. 5.12). Grove has been crushed by batted ball variance, allowing a .333 batting average on balls in play, something that will naturally drop with more reps .

I expect some positive regression from Grove, but this is going to be a brutal matchup for Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. The Dodgers post some of the best power numbers against lefty pitching, slugging at a top five rate against southpaws on the year.

Freeland has been getting crushed by hard contact this season amidst a diminishing strikeout rate. While he's never been known for punching out batters, he's only striking out five batters per nine innings and allowing a home run to fly ball rate north of 12%.

The Dodgers offense should feast on Freeland and a Rockies bullpen that is bottom five in unit ERA. I expect Grove to settle in with more reps and for the Dodgers to take care of business on Wednesday and win with margin.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.