Grading the Dodgers' last 6 first-round draft picks

The 2023 MLB Draft is set to begin on Sunday, July 9, and that means we will get to see who the Los Angeles Dodgers will be adding to their farm system very soon. This draft class looks to be very strong at the top, so teams like the Dodgers that are picking farther down are going to have their work cut out for them.

Here are the basics: the Dodgers do not pick until 36th overall. They would have picked at No. 26, but were bumped back 10 spots because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold by more than $40 million in 2022. They also have one of the league's lower draft bonus pools at $7,274,600 due to their draft position.

Historically, the Dodgers have done well with their first-round picks, with Clayton Kershaw (2006), Corey Seager (2012), Walker Buehler (2015), and Will Smith (2016) turning into some of the biggest stars in the game. However, the last several years have been decidedly more spotty in terms of success.

Here's how the Dodgers' last 6 first round draft picks are doing

There isn't a whole lot of science to these grades. No one is over here using algorithms based on scouting grades combined with projections based on their Double-A FIP. Math is too hard and we will leave that to those that can actually do it. These grades are purely subjective and could easily change pretty quickly if a guy falls off a cliff, turns into a stud, or gets hurt. At the end of the day, following baseball prospects is a lesson in disappointment and heartache.

One last note (because someone is bound to ask): no, we did not forget the Dodgers' 2022 first-round pick. The Dodgers did not have a first round pick in 2022 because they exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold for the 2021 season. The rules have changed a bit, but it is what it is.

Dodgers 2017 First-Round Pick: Jeren Kendall

Pick: 23rd overall
School: Vanderbilt University
Position: Outfielder

While there were concerns that he would swing and miss too much leading up to the 2017 MLB Draft, the Dodgers could not resist Jeren Kendall's rare athleticism when he fell to them at 23rd overall. If he could figure out his hit tool, Kendall was a guy that had a chance to have all five tools play as he could absolutely fly, had a ton of raw power, and played a premium position (center field). Guys like that don't usually make it that far down the first round.

Unfortunately, things didn't turn out as hoped for Kendall. The concerns about his hit tool proved to be spot on. While his first season as a pro turned out OK, he never posted a batting average higher than .219 during his next four seasons. The walk rate, power, and speed were all there, but he just never hit enough. After posting a .573 OPS in 2022, Kendall retired from baseball last December.

We can't necessarily blame the Dodgers for taking a shot on him with his kind of upside, especially given where they were picking in the first round. However, we can't ignore the fact that Kendall never made it past Double-A and flamed out before he made it to the big leagues.

Grade: C-

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Dodgers 2018 First-Round Pick: JT Ginn

Pick: 30th overall
School: Brandon High School (MS)
Position: RHP

Picking at the bottom of the first round yet again, the Dodgers decided to go with Mississippi high school pitching prospect JT Ginn. Ginn's raw stuff was undeniable as he had at least two plus pitches in his fastball and slider with a developing changeup. Prep righty pitchers are always a gamble, but Ginn was a worthy one, especially that late in the first.

Unfortunately, things went completely sideways before they could even get started. LA also drafted Michael Grove in 2018 and he required an overslot bonus to sign with them. Ginn wasn't interested in taking less than he thought he was worth and ultimately decided not to sign with the team. He would go on to pitch for Mississippi State, have Tommy John surgery during his sophomore year, got drafted in the second round by the Mets in 2020, and then got traded to Oakland.

Getting another pick in the 2019 draft meant that not all was lost from failing to sign Ginn, but it's still a blow when you can't ink one of your top choices. Losing a first-round pick means losing all of that draft bonus pool money, and that can completely torpedo a draft class if you have any ambitions of making multiple overslot signings. This was just all-around bad.

Grade: F

Dodgers 2019 First-Round Pick: Michael Busch

Pick: 31st overall
School: UNC
Position: Second base

Fortunately for the Dodgers, they did get another first-round pick in the 2019 draft and they spent it on UNC second baseman Michael Busch. Busch has never been a good defender at any point in his baseball career, but the guy has always hit everywhere he has been. He hits for average and for power from the left side, and the only reason he was available that late was due to teams not having a great sense of where to play him on defense.

Once he got into the Dodgers' farm system, it was more of the same. After struggling in his draft year and sitting out the 2020 season like everyone else, Busch posted back-to-back seasons where he logged an OPS approaching .900, including the 2022 season, during which he hit 32 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. The defensive questions are still there to be sure, but it does seem like he has at least improved as a second baseman. The bat is what matters here, though, and he has a good one.

Finally we have a decent pick from the Dodgers. Busch's lack of defensive value diminishes his ceiling, but offense usually outweighs all. With the designated hitter now in the National League, there will at least be one place LA can play his bat every day. Busch has already gotten a cup of coffee in the big leagues and if he keeps up his pace, he could end up sticking in the Dodgers' lineup for a while (or be used as trade bait at the deadline).

Grade: B+

Dodgers 2020 First-Round Pick: Bobby Miller

Pick: 29th overall
School: Louisville
Position: RHP

The good news keeps coming with the 2020 draft. The Dodgers were picking in the cellar again, and complicating matters was the 2020 draft only being five rounds because of the pandemic. There was a high-level of importance on getting their picks right given they only had five shots at new minor-league blood. Bobby Miller was their pick out of the University of Louisville thanks to his high octane fastball and plus slider. It didn't hurt his case that he had a couple offspeed offerings as well, but the power pitches were what made him a first-rounder.

Miller quickly established himself as one of the better arms in the Dodgers' system in 2021, when he posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 appearances (14 starts) and struck out 70 batters in 56.1 innings of work. The ERA was a bit worse in 2022, but the strikeouts were still there and he was on the fast track to the big leagues. Miller did end up getting called up this season, and while the results have been a bit up and down, he's shown a ton of promise.

Miller hasn't progressed far enough to earn the Dodgers an "A" grade here, but getting a rotation arm with his level of stuff from a shortened draft deserves a round of applause. You're already ahead of the game getting a guy to produce in the big leagues at all, and while Miller isn't a finished product just yet, he is pretty darn close.

Grade: B+

Dodgers 2021 First-Round Pick: Maddux Bruns

Pick: 29th overall
School: UMS-Wright Preparatory School (AL)
Position: LHP

Finally, we come to the 2021 draft, where the Dodgers held the 29th overall pick. LA went with pure upside here by taking Maddux Bruns, a lefty pitcher out of the Alabama high school ranks. Bruns had some of the best pure stuff in the 2021 draft with a fastball that sat in the mid-90s (and could touch higher than that) along with two different breaking balls that could get swings and misses. The problem was that he very often did not know where his pitches were going. The Dodgers saw the potential in him, though, and added him to the fold.

Early on, picking Bruns kind of looked like a mistake as he walked a ton of batters (52 walks in his first 49.1 innings as a pro) across his first two seasons. However, things have improved significantly lately, as he's made some mechanical adjustments. He's still walking too many guys this year despite some improvement there, but he's also been nearly unhittable with a 2.26 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 51.2 innings of work.

This one feels too early to give an accurate grade for. Bruns has a ton of potential, but his command issues could force a move to the bullpen, where his stuff could play up even more. Despite some real concerns about his profile going forward, this pick is looking a lot better than it did before the 2023 season started.

Grade: Tentative B ... for now

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