How Dodgers can survive compromised playoff rotation in search for October glory

As every Dodgers fan knows by now, Los Angeles has struggled with injuries to the starting rotation ever since the 2024 season began. Still, it feels like (as expected) the longer the season has gone on, the more injuries they've been forced to endure. Clayton Kershaw has only made seven starts after starting the season on the IL, and numerous Dodgers have been out the entire season (Dustin May, meet Tony Gonsolin). Somehow, the Dodgers are not only playing well while inundated by injuries, but are contending for the best record in all of MLB.

But the lack of a fully-established starting rotation is a fatal flaw that could sink the Dodgers in October once again, and just as last year proved, outlasting a team in the divisional race over 162 games does not guarantee beating that team in a short series. So just how compromised is the Dodgers' rotation? And how likely is it that LA faces another early exit looming on the horizon?

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference still like the Dodgers' playoff chances, placing them as the NL favorites

Despite the potential pitching woes for the Dodgers, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have very favorable projections for the Dodgers. FanGraphs gives the Dodgers an NL-highest 31.8% chance to win the NLCS and an 18.9% chance to win the World Series, the highest chance for any team in MLB.

Baseball Reference gives the Dodgers a 23.4% chance to win the pennant -- the highest of any team in MLB. Surprisingly, they counter that with only the fourth-highest chance to win the World Series (11.7%).

Even though FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are optimistic, a pessimistic outlook from most fans might (unfortunately) be the right outlook to have with this roster. After all, there are no Dodgers pitchers who have tossed enough innings to qualify for the ERA title this season, and two of LA's top five pitchers in innings pitched (James Paxton and Ryan Yarbrough) are not even in the organization anymore, while the other three (Stone, Glasnow, and Yamamoto) were all on the IL as of Monday, although Yamamoto is slated to return on Tuesday.

Of course, most of the Dodgers' chances are riding on the offense continuing the strong stretch it has been on recently. Shohei Ohtani continues to look like the obvious choice for NL MVP, while Mookie Betts has seen an immediate return to form after his return from the IL, and Freddie Freeman has gotten back to hitting at his normal level as well. When all of the Dodgers' offensive stars are playing at a high level, it shouldn't matter too much who's on the mound in every single game.

However, in an ideal world, the Dodgers will get one (or preferably both) of Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow back fully healthy for the postseason, and strong returns from Gavin Stone and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, along with a healthy Jack Flaherty. If all of that happens, LA would have at least four very viable options to start postseason games.

Regardless of what outlook anyone might have, the Dodgers do have enough firepower that if things go their way, a World Series is well within reach for this roster. After all, no team in MLB will avoid injuries entirely. As the World Series matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rangers proved last year, winning in October is all about getting hot at the right time. As long as the Dodgers can get four of Flaherty, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Stone, and Kershaw fully healthy and stretched out before the start of the postseason, LA should be considered the World Series frontrunners, and even if they get just three of those five back, the Dodgers will be considered among the favorites.