In a race this tight, one Dodgers loss to the Baltimore Orioles can make all the difference.
Luckily, LA's recent pre-deadline surge has them leading the NL West, two games ahead of the field (otherwise known as Arizona and San Francisco). The Dodgers have done a spectacular job holding court despite a slapdash rotation, roller coaster bullpen, and interesting middle infield situation. Deadline reinforcements should only further embolden their contention chances.
But ... when it comes to beating the cream of the crop, the Giants are slightly better. Not better enough to create a narrative, but better enough to chap your hide if you hate your rival one-upping you.
"You might win the regular season," they'll say, "but we're better built for October." Luckily, while this snide hypothetical Giants fan is technically right, there isn't much of a gap, and Dodgers fans still have plenty of high-level wins to hang their hat on. The Giants are an impressive 28-23 against over .500 teams, while the Dodgers sit at 26-22. More opportunities for San Francisco and more wins; the percentages are .549 to .542.
Dodgers' final game with Orioles moved them to second in reordered MLB Standings
The American League East has a clear sample size advantage here, considering their entire division consists of over-.500 teams, but the way the current divisional picture nets out in this metric is a solid indicator of the way teams have played overall.
AL East:
1. Orioles (37-28)
2. Red Sox (35-29)
3. Rays (33-28)
4. Yankees (34-34)
5. Blue Jays (31-35)
AL Central (massive LOL):
1. Guardians (23-27)
2. Twins (24-32)
3. White Sox (25-41)
4. Tigers (20-36)
5. Royals (14-46)
AL West:
1. Rangers (30-26)
2. Astros (27-31)
3. Angels (26-33)
4. Mariners (23-33)
5. A's (18-57)
NL East:
1. Braves (34-20)
2. Marlins (23-26)
3. Mets (26-30)
4. Phillies (26-32)
5. Nationals (17-37)
NL Central:
1. Brewers (27-25)
2. Reds (23-28)
3. Cardinals (25-36)
4. Cubs (24-37)
5. Pirates (21-36)
NL West:
1. Giants (28-23)
2. Dodgers (26-22)
3. Padres (30-32)
4. Diamondbacks (26-28)
5. Rockies (20-41)
Dodgers Playoff Odds
Kudos to the Red Sox' highly impressive record, which has come mainly at the expense of the Blue Jays; Boston is 7-0 against Toronto this season, a complete reversal from last year when the Sox went 3-16 against the Jays. That season series swing has placed Boston above .500 in this category and Toronto below. The AL West is also intriguing. What happened to Houston's mojo, and how are the powerhouse Texas Rangers so mediocre when the going gets tough?
Otherwise, this shakes out similarly to the way you'd expect it to. If the Dodgers can capture a singular win against a tough opponent, they'll be right back where they need to be -- and oh look! Those very same Paper Tiger Texas Rangers are on the horizon Friday night.