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NL West predictions: Can the Dodgers hold off the Padres in 2023?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have dominated the NL West for a decade now and have made the playoffs 10 years in a row, winning the division in all but one of those seasons. The team's current run is the third-longest postseason streak in MLB history behind the 1991-2005 Atlanta Braves and 1995-2007 New York Yankees.
This year is different, though. This is the first season in quite some time in which the Dodgers are not the runaway favorites. Los Angeles lost several notable names over the offseason while the San Diego Padres continued to add top talent.
After the Padres beat the Dodgers in the NLDS last year, many figured the 2023 season will represent a changing of the guard. But will it? Can the Dodgers stave off the Padres and continue their run atop the NL West? Or will LA be playing in a three-game wild card series? Let's break down the division, team by team.
5. Colorado Rockies
- 2022 record: 68-94
- 2023 win total: 64.5
- Projected record: 71-91
- Playoff status: Missed playoffs
The Colorado Rockies will finish with the worst record in the division but actually see an improvement from last season when they won 68 games. A three-game improvement is marginal but this puts the team six wins in the green when it comes to its 2023 win total set by bookmakers.
Kris Bryant missed most of last season, but when he did play the Rockies were close to a .500 team, going 20-22 in Bryant's 42 starts. That won't translate across the entire season, especially with the pitching staff, but it'll be enough to comfortably finish above the lowly projection of 65 wins.
4. San Francisco Giants
- 2022 record: 81-81
- 2023 win total: 81.5
- Projected record: 74-88
- Playoff status: Missed playoffs
The San Francisco Giants winning 107 games in 2021 and snapping the Dodgers' NL West streak is never going to make sense. San Francisco took a huge step back in 2022 and will continue that backward trend in 2023, falling under their projected win total and losing 88 games in the process.
It's hard to find much about the Giants' roster that's great. The pitching staff got worse with Carlos Rodon leaving for New York. The team also missed out on the two big-name signings it was going for in Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa (the latter of which was the team's decision).
The only thing causing hesitation in fully believing the Giants will be bad is Farhan Zaidi, who came from the Dodgers and has pulled a rabbit out of his hat multiple times working in SF. But in a loaded NL West, we're betting he won't be able to do it again.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
- 2022 record: 74-88
- 2023 win total: 75.5
- Projected record: 82-80
- Playoff status: Missed playoffs
The Arizona Diamondbacks are going to be much better than a lot of baseball fans think in 2023. There's a lot of young talent on this roster, headlined by the arrival of outfielder Corbin Carroll.
The Diamondbacks went 34-36 after All-Star break last season and should continue that momentum into next season. If the team can catch some injury breaks then there's an outside chance of Arizona making a wild-card spot. However, having to play the Dodgers and Padres a bunch is going to limit their upward climb.
In the NL Central we might be looking at a playoff team in the Diamondbacks. Instead, they get over .500 in a strong year headlined by a under-the-radar pitching staff and young talent in the field.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2022 record: 111-51
- 2023 win total: 96.5
- Projected record: 98-64
- Playoff status: No. 1 NL Wild Card
The Dodgers are undoubtedly worse than they were last season. That's what happens when you lose Trea Turner in free agency and Gavin Lux to a torn ACL during Spring Training. That said, the Dodgers are not taking as big of a step back as many pundits think.
Miguel Vargas should replace the production of Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez should help offset the loss of Lux, and James Outman will almost certainly be better than Cody Bellinger was last year. As far as pitching goes, the team has Noah Syndergaard and a slew of young pitchers (like Gavin Stone) that can fill in and replace Tyler Anderson.
In theory, you could argue that the Dodgers are only 7-8 games worse than they were a year ago, which would give them 103-104 wins. However, with the Padres being better than they were last year, we should probably tack another 5-6 losses to the Dodgers' record (because they will not be going 14-5 against their rivals this time around.
1. San Diego Padres
- 2022 record: 89-73
- 2023 win total: 93.5
- Projected record: 103-59
- Playoff status: No. 1 seed in NL, first-round bye
As gross as it is to admit, this NL West is the San Diego Padres' division to lose in 2023. Of course, anything can happen across a 162-game season, but the Padres have put together a lineup that's even better than the Dodgers' was last season.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts. That's one of the greatest cores in recent MLB history. San Diego still has quality big-league hitters to fill out the rest of the lineup as well.
The back end of the Padres' rotation is a bit suspect, though. If Yu Darvish and/or Joe Musgrove take a step back or get hurt, then they could be in trouble. But if that happens the team will just trade for whatever ace is on the market, like Corbin Burnes, who suddenly doesn't seem like a legitimate Dodgers trade target.
The Padres are the team to beat in the NL West in 2023. For once, the Dodgers are underdogs and it's actually kind of fun. Let's embrace it.
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