Predicting where each Dodgers free agent signs

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The offseason is upon us. The Los Angeles Dodgers have an endless to-do list staring them in the face. They have a ton of work to do in free agency and on the trade market, but that's not the first order of business.

That would be deciding what to do with their impending free agents. And there are a lot of them. There's no need to bore you with background info, either. This one's straight and to the point.

Who will the Dodgers keep? Who will they let go? And where will the players they let go eventually sign?

Predicting where each Dodgers free agent signs

The Easy Ones

Julio Urías - Japan? Mexico?

Probably looking at a lengthy suspension from the sport stemming from his arrest in early September on felony domestic violence charges. This is the second time he's been implicated in such a situation as a member of the Dodgers, who were probably going to move on from the left-hander had this not happened (his impending free agency case as Scott Boras' client obviously complicated things).

Kolten Wong - Pittsburgh Pirates on minor-league contract

Not sure he can return after Dave Roberts decided to use him in multiple big spots during a failed NLDS. Wong was a late-season addition due to the Dodgers' poor depth, and we can assure fans Andrew Friedman won't make the same mistake to put his team in a bad position for the stretch run. Wong still provides value as a middle infielder, and will probably be a depth option on a much less talented team come 2024.

Amed Rosario - New York Yankees (one-year deal)

We thought this was a slam-dunk trade acquisition when Friedman dumped Noah Syndergaard's money and Rosario burst onto the scene to make a tremendous first impression as a Dodger, but he gradually fell off and wasn't on the NLDS roster (Wong made it over him). There's no way that bodes well for his future in LA. Rosario is by no means bad, but he's a tad underwhelming. The Yankees need some veteran infield support behind Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres, which will improve their equally poor depth.

David Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers (one-year deal)

Peralta had his moments as a Dodger, but he sealed his fate with a little dance at second base after a double during the ALDS ... when LA was trailing by a million. On top of that, he was outplayed by Jason Heyward (who wasn't expected to make the roster) and James Outman (a rookie). There is some value if he's utilized correctly as a fourth outfielder, and something tells us a team soon to be in flux like the Brewers might need to call on his veteran presence and cheap price tag.

Jake Marisnick - Japan?

We truly had no idea Marisnick was still in the league until the Dodgers signed him for depth (again, because their depth was so bad!). Marisnick got injured and that unfortunately sealed his fate, but it won't help his case getting a job in MLB for 2024. Either a minor-league deal with a non-contender or an overseas/international contract feels like what'll happen.

Team Option Guys

Joe Kelly - Dodgers (via exercised team option)

This might seem pricey and unnecessary, but the Dodgers need stability, familiarity and flair in their bullpen. No more revolving doors of injury flyers, minor-league options, or over-the-hill veterans. Kelly still has it, and his $9.5 million team option for 2024 (or $1 million buyout) is not too rich for the Dodgers' blood. It's actually right in line with what they should be paying somebody as accomplished as Kelly, based on all the other lost dollars they spent on failed projects.

Max Muncy - Dodgers (via exercised team option)

Muncy is back for one more year in LA because turning down a $10 million option for a 30-homer bat would be patently insane. We love Max.

Blake Treinen - Dodgers (via declined team option and renegotiation)

The Dodgers can't help themselves. They're definitely not paying $7 million for Treinen in 2024. That team option will (we hope) be declined. But there's no way the Dodgers will get almost no production after throwing away $16 million over the last two seasons. Expect Treinen back on a lesser, one-year contract as a gentlemen's agreement after the Dodgers paid for two of his rehabs. Shake on it.

Daniel Hudson - Nationals (via declined team option)

Hudson's barely pitched for the Dodgers over the last two years, too, and his $6.5 million team option simply isn't good business for 2024. The Dodgers guaranteed his 2023 option (like Treinen's) hoping the good faith move would pay off, but it blew up in their face when Hudson suffered another injury. The Dodgers will cut him loose and he'll find a familiar home in Washington as the Nats look to get some more veterans in the door to help their young roster.

Alex Reyes - Red Sox (via declined team option)

The Dodgers burned $1.1 million on Reyes as another hopeful injury reclamation project, but what do you know? Another injury sent him back on the shelf for 2023 and they had to have learned their lesson with these decisions. Reyes carries a $3 million team option, which probably isn't worth the risk despite the high upside (he hasn't pitched since 2021). But don't worry, the Red Sox, who try to steal the Dodgers' formula at every turn, will look to save a penny and scoop him. Just watch.

Lance Lynn - Cubs (via declined team option)

Lynn has the largest option of them all -- $18 million for 2024. Once upon a time, that looked like a bargain when he was seemingly turning around his game in LA. But that changed fast after he re-cratered and eventually eliminated them from the playoffs. The Dodgers need starting pitching, but that $18 million can be spent a lot smarter -- and perhaps across two arms instead of one depreciating one.

Potential Return Candidates (and Actual Contributors)

Ryan Brasier - Dodgers

The Dodgers can't not re-sign Brasier after what they got out of him in 2023. The Red Sox ditched him after a number of underwhelming years, then the Dodgers scooped him up and got an 0.70 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 38.2 innings. Did his value increase? Sure. But it's definitely not going to reach prohibitive levels, and you'd have to think Brasier might want to re-up with the side that helped him get on track and fulfill his potential.

Shelby Miller - Dodgers

OK, fine, the Dodgers can't let the one injury reclamation project that actually worked leave. Miller was scooped up by LA last offseason and ended up pitching in 36 games, which was impressive because he logged just 45 from 2017-2022. He posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 42 innings but lost a good amount of time due to a neck injury. As upsetting as it sounds, that'll help the Dodgers in the negotiations, and, like Brasier, we'd have to think Miller might want to remain with the team that got the most out of him.

Kiké Hernández - Yankees

Back to the depth discussion! The Dodgers probably have a good shot at retaining Hernández if they want him, but they spurned him once back after the 2020 season and have much bigger free agency endeavors to handle this time around. Hernandez woke up after being acquired at the trade deadline (he was struggling badly in Boston), but his versatility and postseason prowess will be in demand. He probably won't be waiting around for the Dodgers, and we think a fellow struggling contender like the Yankese will jump in and get this done rather quickly.

Jason Heyward - Dodgers

Heyward signed a minor-league contract last offseason, wasn't expected to make the roster, and emerged as one of the team's most important players. The Dodgers took another floundering veteran, tapped into the talent well, and gave the man new life. Heyward came to LA because of Freddie Freeman's influence, and it's hard to see him leaving because he's still making money off the Cubs. The Dodgers will give him a raise, and that should be enough to get a deal done.

JD Martinez - Twins

It very much feels like JD Martinez is gone. Why? Because either Shohei Ohtani or Max Muncy will be the designated hitter in 2024. Ohtani can't pitch in 2024, which means hitting will be his sole job. If the Dodgers are truly the frontrunners, this deal will get done if both sides desire it. Muncy's defense is on the decline, and if the Dodgers can help it, they probably shouldn't be starting him at third base every day. Martinez also had a great year and played himself into a multi-year contract. Look for a team like the Twins, who could use a bit more offense and improve their contender status, to add another veteran to the mix (they'll be saying goodbye to Joey Gallo and will have no choice but to keep playing Byron Buxton in the outfield).

Clayton Kershaw - Retirement

We're sadly watching Clayton Kershaw breaking down before our very eyes -- and it's been happening for quite some time. This year was especially depressing because he got off to a great start, then had his season derailed with an injury, then returned in time for the stretch run/postseason, and couldn't have ended 2023 on a worse note. He was clobbered by the D-backs, allowing six runs in 0.1 innings of work. It sounds awful to end a career that way, but Kershaw has said health will be the biggest factor as he weighs his future, and we don't see that improving for him. He doesn't really care about individual accolades, so that 3,000 strikeout mark may not matter much to him. We really don't see him going to the Rangers at this rate, either. Call it a return to the Dodgers with an understanding he's present just to record the K milestone, or retirement, which we very much feel could be the case since the last three promising seasons have ended in absolute disaster for the Dodgers. We can't take much more of that, and we're sure Kershaw can't either.

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Predicting where each Dodgers free agent signs

The Easy Ones

Team Option Guys

Potential Return Candidates (and Actual Contributors)

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