Projecting what a Tyler Glasnow extension from the Dodgers could look like

The Dodgers appear to be poised to finalize a trade with the Rays, but only if they can Tyler Glasnow to sign an extension that works for them.
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One / Megan Briggs/GettyImages

Thursday night, there was a significant development reported in the Los Angeles Dodgers' ongoing efforts to trade for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays. The move has seemingly been in the works for the last few days, but the dam appears to have broken after a slew of reports came out that the two sides had agreed in principle on a deal that would send Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca to Tampa Bay in exchange for Glasnow and Margot.

However, there is one huge caveat here: the deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with LA. By all accounts, getting an extension done appears very likely to happen as soon as Friday. While crazier things have happened, the details of a trade usually don't get leaked like this one has unless there is a high degree of confidence that it will get to the finish line. The only real question now is what Glasnow's extension might look like.

Dodgers Tyler Glasnow Contract: How big of an extension is coming?

For 2024, Glasnow is already owed $25 million from his previous deal with the Rays. That much is 100% certain. We also know that LA is pretty flush with cash at the moment, given that the terms of Shohei Ohtani's contract has given them some luxury tax wiggle room and they don't have many players signed long-term.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the expectation is that Glasnow's extension will likely take him "into his mid-30s and exceed nine figures," which gives us a pretty good idea of what could be coming, given that Glasnow is 30 years old. While we don't know the exact structure or if there could be any club options, opt-outs, or incentives, a four- or five-year deal with an AAV around the $25 million he is making this coming season seems to be the safest bet. This will not be a one- or two-year tack-on.

The Dodgers are taking a big risk with giving Glasnow a big contract extension

Assuming all of what is currently being speculated is true, LA is really going out on a limb here with locking up Glasnow long-term. There is no denying that when the righty is on the mound, he has frontline starter ability. If he stays healthy, this deal could be an absolute heist of historic proportions.

The problem is that Glasnow has shown little to no ability to stay healthy. The biggest injury on Glasnow's ledger is the Tommy John surgery he had in 2021 after multiple arm issues cost him playing time beforehand. Since then, he has dealt with back issues as well as a strained oblique which cost him a bunch of time in 2023. He may be one of the best pitchers in the league when he is on the mound, but his career high in innings came last season with 120 IP. That is not great, especially when you consider that he has only pitched over 100 innings in a season twice in his eight-year career.

Could this move work out? Absolutely. However, the Dodgers would be very wise to build an extension in such a way that involves incentives for innings pitched, or to guarantee the first couple of years before tacking on club options after that. If they don't, there is a good chance that this deal could blow up in their faces.

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