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The Los Angeles Dodgers received a much-needed bye after a 100-62 season. They will resume play the winner of the NL Wild Card Series between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
While Dodgers fans know who they want to win on the other side of the bracket (Chicago Cubs-San Diego Padres NL Wild Card Series), no one would blame LA for not having their mind made up as to which NL East team they want to face. Let's dive into it.
Which NL East team would the Dodgers prefer to face in NLDS?
The easy answer is the Phillies. Philadelphia is 9-13 since September 4 and their Game 1 starter against the Braves, Jesus Luzardo, is still recovering from left shoulder inflammation.
The key to the Phillies success this season has been their elite rotation that consists of Luzardo, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Aaron Nola. Not only are the Phillies reeling of late, but the Dodgers went 1-5 against the Braves this season — their worst record against any National League opponent this season. The Dodgers went 4-2 against the Phillies.
However, despite the Phillies' September struggles, they were still better than the Braves during the final two months of the season. Since August 1, the Phillies are 31-21, while the Braves are 29-23.
The playoffs are all about starting pitching. So, would the Dodgers rather face Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, and Luzardo, or Chris Sale, Grant Holmes, Tyler Mahle, and AJ Smith-Shawver/JR Ritchie (the Braves will almost definitely use a bullpen day in lieu of starting Smith-Shawver or Ritchie)?
The Braves lineup has been better than the Phillies this season. But Phillies hitters have been better postseason performers. Bryce Harper (1.090), Kyle Schwarber (.930) and Trea Turner (.832) all have a better career playoff OPS than any Braves hitter.
While it feels obvious like the Dodgers should prefer the Phillies in the NLDS, that feels a little too much like recency bias. There are more signs that point to the Braves being the easier opponent. The Dodgers struggled against the Braves, but that was during the regular season. This is the postseason, and you can throw all that out the window.
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