Signs are pointing to Nolan Arenado holding out for a trade to the Dodgers

On Wednesday, Nolan Arenado blocked a trade from the Cardinals to the Astros with a deal "on the one-yard line."

The Astros weren't on the reported list of teams he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause for, but Houston forged ahead anyway, maybe in the hope that he would change his mind, as they face the very real prospect of losing Alex Bregman to another team in free agency.

They're still in conversation with St. Louis, but the newest word says that neither party is optimistic a deal will actually work out. Arenado, meanwhile, has made it pretty clear that he wants to be a Dodger, while LA has openly stood by Max Muncy as their Opening Day third baseman next year.

However, according to MLB.com Cardinals beat writer John Denton, the Dodgers' redirection has been intentional. He said bluntly, "The Dodgers still want Arenado." He also confirmed that all of the unsubtle hints Arenado's been dropping on social media weren't accidental, and that the 10-time Gold Glover was going to wait on an answer from LA first before approving a trade anywhere else.

"Nolan is gonna hold out until the Dodgers tell him 'No' to his face," Denton said.

Dodgers reportedly still in the running for Nolan Arenado despite standing by Max Muncy at third

Now, the Dodgers could always try to have their cake and eat it too by moving Muncy back to second base and putting Gavin Lux on the bench or trading him. Muncy hasn't played second since 2022 and his play there had declined significantly before the move, but the Dodgers certainly haven't shied away from intentionally hurting their defense for the sake of their offense (see: Mookie Betts moving back to shortstop).

Arenado's power at the plate took a sharp decline in 2024, when he put up a career-worst slugging at .394. If that decline continues into 2025, the Dodgers would certainly be taking an offensive hit if they get rid of Muncy for him.

Letting go of Lux, who was reportedly offered up in trade talks for Devin Williams, and shifting Muncy back to second seems like the best route. The Dodgers would get a defensive upgrade at third, be able to keep Muncy's power in the lineup, and would be able to try to extract a couple more 30+ homer seasons from Arenado (realistically, 25+) to recall his former glory. It's not perfect, but it makes sense.