Tarik Skubal free agency report has Dodgers trade deadline feeling like a win-win

It’s starting to feel like the race for Tarik Skubal is a three-team race with the Los Angeles Dodgers pulling up the rear. Mark Feinsand put the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are ahead of them in the chase to acquire the lefty. And that could make Dodgers fans a little unhappy.

Only this time, it probably doesn’t. Everyone should be viewing this as a marathon and not a race, and Bob Nightengale indicated that the deadline chase may just be the first leg of a marathon the Dodgers win rather easily.

According to the USA Today writer, the Dodgers are considered Skubal’s first choice in free agency. So whatever happens over the next few hours and days likely doesn’t change the fact that they’re the odds-on favorites to have Skubal in the rotation in 2027 and beyond. 

The Dodgers chances of adding Tarik Skubal in free agency may change their deadline strategy

Here’s why that changes everything at this deadline. Even if the Brewers or Rays outbid the Dodgers with their prospects for Skubal, they’re not really beating the Dodgers in the long-term. They’re renting him for two months and what they hope is an additional month on their way to a title.

Then he’s likely to get on a plane to LA (probably before the lockout) and sign a deal there to help the Dodgers either try to go for a fourth straight title or to win their third in four years, depending on how the rest of this season shakes out. 

The Brewers and Rays have no real chance to sign Skubal long-term. They’re not going to out-money the Dodgers for the ace. Everyone involved knows that’s a fact, and the Brewers have already discussed what trading for Skubal would cost them long-term, knowing that they won’t be in the market for him once they’re done, if they even get the chance to have him in 2026. It’s a lot to surrender for less than half a season for an arm they can’t realistically keep.

So the Dodgers can sit back and let the Tigers try to raid a farm system from whoever blinks first, and they can still end up with Skubal without having to dip into their prospect ranks. It is certainly less fun if you’re a Dodgers fan, but it’s also the likelier outcome that leads to the best long-term health of the franchise. 

Let’s be clear. This doesn’t mean the Dodgers should just end contact with Scott Harris and the Tigers. Andrew Friedman has always said that he’ll hang around on any star-level talent. Add in that Shohei Ohtani’s injury does change the calculation a bit, and the front office has every reason to push for rotation help.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean Skubal is the only answer. Hunter Greene may end up being a more realistic in-season fix if the prospect price for Skubal is outrageous. Back in May, the hope was that Skubal’s injury could possibly lower the price enough to make it make perfect sense, but his return and success have likely removed that possibility.

Regardless, the Nightengale report reframes what not getting Skubal could even mean for the Dodgers. No, they’d prefer he doesn’t go to Milwaukee, the team that looks like it should be LA’s biggest competition in the National League, but it’s still not the same gut punch knowing they could end up with Skubal anyway.

The Tigers get to run their auction, the Brewers (or Rays) can pay big for a rental, and the Dodgers can watch it all unfold while knowing that Skubal is starting on Opening Day for them in 2027. 

It’s not a full-on win-win, but it’s pretty close. The Tigers cash in. The Dodgers maintain their prospect pool to use in another deal down the road (or this week). Some other team hopes and prays they get Skubal and he can help them take their best shot at a title.

Trade deadlines are about urgency, but the Dodgers, and this is partly because they’ve won two years in a row, don’t need to feel that. They can, and likely will, still get other pitching help without using that urgency to do something drastic. And they’ll still be the favorites to win it all while being even better next year because of it.

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