The 1 trade candidate Dodgers must avoid for remainder of 2025-2026 offseason

Despite making one of the biggest splashes at the Winter Meetings by signing Edwin Diaz, the Los Angeles Dodgers are playing the market and letting things come to them. While that tactic is definitely in play as they wait out the top free agents on the market, the same applies to how they are navigating targets on the trade block.

The general sentiment among those close to the team is that LA will address the outfield, one of the few remaining trouble spots, via the trade market. The target on everyone's mind is Steven Kwan, but numerous other options exist, including Lars Nootbar and Brendan Donovan of the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, and a dark horse in Minnesota Twins star Byron Buxton, among others.

One of the most available players, however, is Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr., who, after years in the trade spotlight, feels like a guarantee to move this winter.

Toolsy and dynamic, Robert Jr. has long been linked to the Dodgers, and now, with Chicago seemingly motivated to make a deal, it shouldn't surprise to see Los Angeles get connected to him.

Trading for Luis Robert Jr. would be a huge Dodgers' mistake

Just because a flashy player at a position of need becomes available doesn't mean the Dodgers should dip their toes into his market. That's where we find ourselves with Robert Jr.

Much of the hype around Robert Jr. comes from his prospect billing, ranking No. 2 on Baseball America's Top 100 and No. 3 on MLB Pipeline's list back in 2020. Robert Jr. displayed five-tool trades, having fans and analysts alike salivating at the thought of what he could potentially become.

Robert Jr. debuted in 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic and various injuries prevented him from truly finding a rhythm. Through 2022, he had shown flashes, but never truly broke out.

The long-awaited ascension to superstardom occurred in 2023, when a 25-year-old Robert Jr. slashed .264/.315/.542 with 38 dingers, 20 steals, and exceptional defense in center field. Instead of building on that performance, Robert Jr. fell off a cliff.

2024 saw him post a career-worst 33.2% strikeout rate and an 84 wRC+ while being limited to just 100 games. Hoping for a rebound in 2025, Robert Jr. yet again put up an 84 wRC+ and saw his second-half resurgence cut short by injury, once again limiting him to just 110 games.

A lot has been made about Robert Jr.'s second half, with some believing that he turned a corner by slashing .298/.352/.456 in 31 post-All-Star break games. That ignores the much larger sample, 76 games, in which he hit a putrid .190/.275/.325.

Much of Robert Jr.'s value was buoyed by his 9.3% walk rate, which is significantly higher than his 6.3% career average. More importantly, that walk rate looks like a fluke as Robert Jr. posted a 20th percentile chase rate (32.5%) and a ninth percentile whiff rate (31.7%).

Overall, if it's not the long stretches of poor performance that concern you, it's his inability to stay on the field. Robert Jr. has topped 110 games in a single season just once, with that coming in his outlier 2023 campaign when he logged 145 contests.

With several other fragile players on the roster and coming off the Michael Conforto debacle, what the Dodgers truly need to round out the outfield is stability, not flash. They have enough star power from the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and others that a consistent complement will do the job just fine.

Even if Robert Jr.'s price tag is tumbling from the astronomically high ask the White Sox put forth the last couple of seasons, the risk outweighs the reward, and the Dodgers would be wise to stay very far away.