There's 1 clear thing standing between Dodgers and their top trade deadline target

With just six weeks until the MLB trade deadline, there is still one big thing standing in the way of the Los Angeles Dodgers landing their top trade target.

According to MLB insider Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Dodgers have been looking to go after Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara for quite some time now. "The Dodgers, who have plenty of prospects, are one of the teams lurking," wrote Nightengale.

With the Marlins sitting in last place at 28-42 and the abundance of prospects in the Dodgers organization, it would seem to be a good fit on paper. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is certainly going to make a run at it, but with Alcantara's struggles in 2025, a trade seems more and more unlikely, even if Los Angeles remains interested.

Sandy Alcantara's 2025 struggles could affect Dodgers trade pursuit

In 14 starts for the Marlins this season, Sandy Alcantara is 3-8 with a 6.88 ERA over 68 innings. Just three years ago, he won the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.28 ERA over 228 2/3 innings pitched, but he looks like a different pitcher entirely since coming back from his Tommy John surgery.

Alcantara's K/9 ratio is the lowest it has been since 2019. His walk rate is the highest it has been since 2018. He has given up the most hits per nine innings since 2017 when he was a 21-year-old with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Alcantara is in the bottom 25th percentile of pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average against, average exit velocity, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage and walk percentage. He has simply had nothing working for him this season. All of his advanced metrics have cratered from his career norms.

As Nightengale wrote in his report, Alcantara is slowly starting to look like himself again with his fastball (97.6 MPH) velocity starting to bounce back. He is also beginning to command his pitch arsenal better. It's the perfect time for a team like the Dodgers to get in on Alcantara ... which is exactly why the Marlins probably won't trade him.

Marlins won't sell low on Sandy Alcantara at the trade deadline

It doesn't make much sense for the Marlins to trade Alcantara at this year's deadline. While they may be sitting with the second-worst record in the National League, selling low on Alcantara would be a really foolish decision.

Alcantara is under contract for 2026 with a team option for 2027. That could be 2.5 more years of control for a pitcher who is starting to find his groove.

It is well documented that it can take some time to get back to full strength after Tommy John surgery. Nobody would be surprised if Alcantara had a more dominant second half, thus skyrocketing his value in the offseason trade market.

If team's still aren't willing to give Miami a haul, the Marlins could hold him through next season's trade deadline and hope a strong first half gets them the return you'd expect to get for a former Cy Young winner who is still under 30.

It's not the Dodgers' willingness to make a move that will keep them from getting Alcantara. It's not even Miami's position in the standings or the money involved. Unfortunately, it's common sense that the Marlins would be foolish to trade their best asset for pennies on the dollar ... but that's all Alcantara is worth at the moment.