Tigers-Tarik Skubal drama just brought Dodgers one step closer to pulling off a trade

The Dodgers passed their arbitration deadline day with zero fanfare. They'd already settled with Brusdar Graterol, and they gave all of Alex Call, Brock Stewart, and Anthony Banda almost exactly what everyone expected them to ($1.6 million, $1.3 million, and $1.625 million, respectively) — marginal amounts compared to everyone else on LA's roster.

However, halfway across the country, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal turned themselves into a spectacle. They were unable to agree on a contract for Skubal's last year under team control. Detroit filed at $19 million and Skubal at $32 million. That's the biggest gap in the history of the arbitration system. If they have to take the matter to an arbitration panel and Skubal wins, he'll blow past Juan Soto's record $31 million.

The Tigers are typically a file-and-trial team, which means that they don't bother to negotiate in the time between numbers being exchanged and an arbitration hearing. Although they might have to make an exception for Skubal, there's a very good chance he could win if the two sides have to duke it out. Jeff Passan pointed out that Skubal could invoke a "rarely used provision that allows players with more than five years of service time to compare themselves not only to past arbitration-eligible players but to everyone in baseball." Skubal has 5.114 years of service time.

Skubal getting his way would be music to the Dodgers' ears. If the Tigers are stuck paying him a lot more than they want to, they could be even more incentivized to deal him before the season starts.

Tigers might have even more reason to hear the Dodgers out on a Tarik Skubal trade after arbitration mess

If Skubal can measure himself up against the rest of baseball in a hearing, the Tigers may not stand a chance. The Skubal-Paul Skenes debate is valid, but there's at least no doubt that the former is the preeminent pitcher in the American League. Passan used Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler at their peaks as his examples, but we might also look to another lefty: Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw signed a seven-year, $215 million extension with the Dodgers ahead of the 2014 season, after he won his second career Cy Young. That's a $30.71 million AAV, but he made $22 million in 2014. Adjusted for inflation, that's $30.12 million.

Kershaw had done a lot more up to that point to establish himself as the best pitcher in baseball up to that point (and then he won his third Cy Young and an MVP that very season) and had more years to do it, but Skubal already has the same amount of Cy Youngs and Triple Crowns, and just one less ERA title and All-Star appearance than Kershaw did after his 2013 season.

Even if the Tigers come to the table to hash this out with Skubal ahead of a hearing, they're still going to end up paying him more than they want to. And if they don't want to pay him, we know a pretty good team on the west coast that is definitely willing and able to take him off their hands.