Why Dodgers winning Game 4 vs. Phillies could determine playoff fate

Not all October games are created equal. Game 4 at Chavez Ravine is a pivotal night for the Dodgers. They already let a sweep slip on Oct. 8, a missed chance to bank rest, set the rotation, and walk into the NLCS with a full tank. So the mandate tightens from here: beat the Phillies now and the Dodgers control their calendar, their pitching, and their pulse.

Instead, the bracket tightened. Beat the Philadelphia Phillies now and the Dodgers control their calendar, their pitching, and their nerves. Lose, and it’s a cross-country coin flip in one of baseball’s rowdiest venues with every matchup suddenly harder to pull as the momentum disappears.

It’s bigger than just “advance or go home.” Postseason series are also about sequencing, and Game 4 is a domino. A win would provide oxygen for a bullpen that’s carried heavy leverage, as well as flexibility for how to deploy Shohei Ohtani in the next round. Drop it, and the whole month compresses.

Why the Dodgers need Game 4 to avoid an Ohtani-or-bust Game 5 in Philly

Yes, Philadelphia still faces elimination in Los Angeles, but finishing the job in Game 4 spares the Dodgers the chaos of one more roll of the dice in a do-or-die, winner-take-all setting.

Let’s be honest about what a loss would mean. If the series heads back to Philadelphia, a decisive Game 5 likely turns into Shohei Ohtani vs. Jesús Luzardo. The Dodgers have other ways to script it, sure, but in that scenario the most probable path involves handing the ball to Ohtani and telling him to carry the season. That piles pressure on the lineup to solve a high-octane lefty while also asking Ohtani to shoulder maximum innings in a tough building.

And that choice has ripples. An Ohtani start in a Game 5 would almost certainly take him off the board for Game 1 in the NLCS against either the Brewers or Cubs. Instead of playing from ahead in the series with their ace, the Dodgers would be playing calendar catch-up — patching together an opener or pushing a mid-rotation arm into the spotlight while Ohtani resets. Opponents feel that opening; it changes how both bullpens and pinch-hit matchups are managed from the first inning of the next round.

There’s also the human element. Finishing in four preserves rhythm without draining the tank. It keeps the bullpen’s highest-leverage arms on normal rest, spares the defense another stress test in Philly, and lets the lineup carry confidence into the NLCS instead of trying to rebuild it on a loud road stage. Clinch at home and you get to celebrate, recover, recalibrate — those are your advantages.

Ultimately, Game 4 is the Dodgers’ best and cleanest route to a longer October. Win now, and they advance with their ace still holstered, their bullpen aligned, and the NLCS schedule tilted in their favor. Lose, and they invite single-game madness on the road.