Will Smith’s postseason is yet another example of Dodgers gambling on injury returns (and losing)

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered October hoping their star-studded roster would finally be healthy enough to chase a third consecutive World Series title. Instead, their postseason has become a reminder that returning from an injury and returning to form are two very different things.

Will Smith is the latest example. After missing nearly three months with a stubborn neck injury, the All-Star catcher returned September 1 and immediately looked like an impact addition. He batted .290 with a .948 OPS in his final 21 regular-season games, offering the Dodgers every reason to believe their lineup was getting a major boost.

Six postseason games later, that optimism looks increasingly misplaced. Smith is 1-for-23 entering Game 3 of the NLCS, with Los Angeles trailing Milwaukee 2-0. The underlying numbers are almost as ugly: His expected batting average has plunged to .135, and he's 0-for-12 with five strikeouts against fastballs. According to Statcast, he has been late on 55% of his swings against heaters.

There is no definitive evidence that Smith's neck is still bothering him. His strong September makes any claim that the Dodgers rushed him back difficult to support. But that doesn't absolve the organization of the bigger gamble: assuming a veteran returning from a lengthy absence could seamlessly maintain his production through the most demanding games of the season.

Will Smith's postseason disaster raises uncomfortable questions about Dodgers' injury management

Smith isn't the only example. Shohei Ohtani has spent months managing knee and biceps problems, served a September injured-list stint and entered Game 3 hitting .150 without an extra-base hit this postseason. The Dodgers even considered sitting him despite their desperate need for offense. Their two biggest offensive questions are now players whose health complicated their second halves.

The catching situation makes Smith's struggles especially difficult to address. Dalton Rushing's elbow injury removed the club's most experienced alternative from the postseason roster, leaving Hunter Feduccia as the backup. Smith has caught every inning of October baseball while trying to rediscover his swing.

To be fair, returning players don't always fail. Andy Pages, who missed much of September with a fractured hand, delivered the decisive two-run single that sent Los Angeles past Atlanta in the NLDS.

But one successful gamble doesn't erase a troubling pattern. The Dodgers assembled a roster expensive and talented enough to withstand almost anything, yet they have reached October relying on injured stars to become their best selves on command. With their season suddenly on the line, they're discovering that hope is not a rehabilitation plan.

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