Dodgers: The Struggles and Panic Meter of Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish is coming off his worst start for the Dodgers and has been trending down since his first start. Is it time to worry?

Yu Darvish started off his Dodgers’ career in Darvish-esque fashion, throwing seven shutout innings with ten strikeouts and allowing just three hits.

However, since then, he has looked more and more shaky each start. He has dealt with pitch inefficiency and hard hits because of a lack of control. In his 26 innings as a Dodger, he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His walk rate has jumped to 3.5 BB/9. The one silver lining is he is still striking out batters at an elite 11.8 K/9 rate, up from his 9.7 K/9 earlier with Texas this season.

When he struggled against the Brewers last Saturday, I believed it was due to the rust of missing ten days. But when the Padres light you up at Petco, something is up.

So should we be worrying and thinking this trade is going to be a bust? Before we answer that, we have to know what is wrong with him first. It definitely isn’t velocity.

One of the biggest problems right now is the long ball. He has allowed six home runs in the four starts since his debut. If you want to be effective, that is one of the areas you have to be good in.

In his short stint with LA thus far, he has an ugly 24.0% home run per fly ball rate which would explain his 2.1 HR/9 as a Dodger and 1.4 HR/9 for the season (which would be a career high).

And as mentioned earlier, his control has become a bit erratic, which has led to extra baserunners and extra pitches. Three of his five starts have seen him go five innings or less, which isn’t ideal from your number two starter. And this is mainly due to his control, or lack thereof.

In his second start in blue against the Diamondbacks, it seemed as if he was in a three-ball count against every batter he faced (17 of his 22 batters) and it was because he just kept missing his spots. Whenever that happens, the pitch count will skyrocket every time.

This continued over the next three starts, and when he missed in the zone, he’d get hammered.

The biggest problem with him right now has to be his mechanics. If you compare his mechanics from this season compared to 2013 (his best season), you can see a significant discrepancy.

Right now his release points are all over the place and inconsistent, unlike four years ago. In fact, if you look at his release points from 2014, they more in line with 2013 than 2017. Now I’m not a coach, but if you were to take a look at his delivery from 2013 or 2014, you could see a difference compared to today. You know what 2013 and 2014 have in common? They were his pre-Tommy John seasons.

It makes you wonder whether he is overcompensating because of his TJ surgery. My biggest fear with him, after he was acquired, was the lingering effects of Tommy John on him, and it seems as if they may be affecting him a little. This is technically his first full season since the procedure, so he may just be still adjusting.

If that is the case, you can definitely see it in his pitches. He still has great stuff, but it is not on the same level of elite it was earlier in the 31-year-old’s career.

His pitches just do not have the same movement that they once did and his money pitch after the fastball, the slider, is the biggest culprit.

Last month he had an average of 8.63 inches of horizontal movement and his last start it was at 6.99 inches. In 2013 and 2014, the horizontal movement was 9.24 and 9.60 inches, respectively.

This can help explain him leaving hangers out over the plate. Each inch counts. An inch in the zone could translate to yards in the field.  And when he doesn’t leave a hanger, it’s usually a ball.

Just look at the results. The ball percentage is higher this season than in years past, the swings and misses aren’t the same, and hitters are seeing the pitch better. As a Dodger, batters are hitting .304 while slugging .722 off the slider.

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Another of his filthy pitches, the curveball, has the same drop as it once did, if not more, but it isn’t moving side to side as it once did either. It’s moving about two inches less horizontally. Yet batters are only hitting .143 off it. But, the thing is, he’s not throwing it as much as he has in the past.

He has decreased the dosage of curveballs and added onto the slider. And I feel Tommy John plays a significant factor in that because curveballs are the pitches that put the most stress on an elbow.

And in terms of pure stuff regarding his fastball, it’s arguably better than ever because he’s throwing it harder than he ever has and the movement is similar, if not more. But hitters are raking off it to a tune of a .368 average with a .737 slugging percentage.

To simplify, the two pitches he uses the most (over a combined 75% of the time) are his least effective pitches. And that has to do with the pitch itself and his command of them.

Ultimately, in my non-professional opinion, it comes down to mechanics. Just look at the turnaround Rich Hill has had since refining his mechanics. And refining them is what Darvish is doing. It will just take a little bit longer.

Because of this, I believe that on a scale from one through ten, the panic level should be at a six. It’s something to be aware and worry about but nothing to freak out over because you have to take into account the mechanical changes.

As a golfer, I know how hard it is to change a swing and get used to it on the fly so I can only imagine how hard it is to alter the way you throw a ball and still have the same pinpoint precision and movement.

Next: First Wave of September Call-ups

I will give Darvish and the Dodgers the benefit of the doubt because they are doing this midseason and don’t get the same time as you would in an offseason. That and Rick Honeycutt is the best pitching coach in baseball, so I trust him. Expect his trajectory to point upwards in a start or two. If not, then palms should start sweating.