Dodgers: LA should offer whatever it takes to acquire Felipe Vazquez

2 of 3

ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 16: Felipe Vazquez #73 of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the ninth inning at Busch Stadium on July 16, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Well Dodgers fans, its that critical time of year again. We have made it to that ultimate fingernail-chewing, hair-pulling, a frustration-inducing moment of the summer: the July 31 trade deadline.

This year’s deadline carries even more significance than in year’s past, as there is no longer a separate waiver trade deadline in August.

This be-all, end-all trade deadline will lead to plenty of exciting headlines over the next few days. So the question becomes, as it has the past two deadline seasons, “Will the Dodgers acquire the biggest name on the block?”

At the last two deadlines, this has been the main question, with the sub-header to all Dodger fans pleading cries to the front office being “Will we add an impact reliever? PS: We’d prefer a lefty.”

Now, in 2019, after two failed World Series attempts, the team is in position to answer these same questions once again. This time though, I would implore the Dodgers to answer both sets of questions with the same answer: a left-handed flame thrower from the Pittsburgh Pirates named Felipe Vazquez.

Many of you may want to stop reading right now and explain how Felipe Vazquez is not even on the block because the Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said as much just two days ago. And I know this and continued to write this article in spite of that report.

Because after reading this quote from MLB.com, an idea sprung to mind for a type of trade that the Dodgers could pull off to land the one man that would have the best chance to bring the rings back to LA:

“My job is to listen when someone makes the call, but we’re not the one placing the calls to see what’s out there. If somebody wants to explore anybody on our club, we have to. Back in the day, we had to explore on anybody and it’s no different. It’s our job. The rumor mill takes it where it takes it. “But we always have to entertain ways to make this organization — and ideally this current club — better. Sometimes you make the future clubs better, but we fully anticipate Felipe will be closing the next playoff games that we’re a part of.”

Basically, all of this bluster is Huntington saying that he would need to be blown away by an offer to consider dealing Vazquez. Luckily for the Dodgers, they have just the combination of prospect depth and prospect talent to pull off an astronomical blockbuster, the likes of which have not been seen at the trade deadline in recent memory.

Disclaimer: I am obviously not a GM and I do not have delusions of grandeur about becoming one. But I do think that after consuming so much baseball and after conducting heavy research that I am qualified to speculate about the type of prospects who would need to be included in a Felipe Vazquez package.

In the rest of this article, that’s exactly what I intend to do.

First, I will breakdown the prospect package that I believe will be needed to land Vazquez. Then, I’ll get into how Vazquez compares to other elite relievers, with the ultimate goal of conveying how talented he is, and how worthy of an unheard-of cost Vazquez is.

WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 15: Keibert Ruiz #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the World Team walks through the dugout as he leaves the game injured in the seventh inning against the U.S. Team during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at Nationals Park on July 15, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The Prospect Package

Brace yourself. For many, if not all of you, especially the prospect-huggers amongst you, this one is going to hurt.

So before I get directly into the cost, I am going to cite research from a past Vazquez deep dive into the cost of elite relievers at the trade deadline in the past few seasons (I will link to this article while only quoting the Aroldis Chapman cost though I have the Andrew Miller and Mark Melancon costs in my previous piece):

Aroldis Chapman Trade to the Chicago Cubs, 2016 Result: World Series Win for the Cubs Cost: Gleyber Torres- the top-ranked Cubs prospect, #24 overall prospect in MLB at 19 years old Billy McKinney- 2013 1st rd pick, 5th overall Cubs prospect Adam Warren- Major League relief pitcher (7th inning type) Rashad Crawford- minor prospect, hit .280 with 4 homers at Single-A full season in 2015 Analysis: The Cubs needed shut down closer, and this was the guy to get. They went and got him and paid the price. While they won the World Series, they gave up their top prospect, the 19-year old Gleyber Torres, who has blossomed into an All-Star caliber second baseman with 30+ homer power.

So one half-season of Aroldis Chapman cost the Cubs a future All-Star. Some may say that isn’t worth it. But at the same time, that’s the point of making trades. One team improves a great deal in the present and another a great deal for the future.

That’s the tradeoff. Plus, prospects are inherently risky, as they not only may get injured but they may prove unable to reach the major league level or ineffective when they do reach the bigs.

Now that you’ve been primed or re-primed to the cost of a rental superstar reliever, here’s what I believe Vazquez will cost and why I think that will be the case.

I think that Vazquez is worth a collection of four of the Dodgers’ top-10 prospects, and potentially a current major leaguer out of the bullpen. I think that the ideal package for both sides would be as follows:

The Dodgers would give up their #2, #3, #6, and #13 prospects in their system, plus Yimi Garcia out of the major league bullpen. That would mean Keibert Ruiz, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and D.J. Peters out of the farm system and into Pittsburgh’s coffers. Ruiz is a top-30 MLB.com prospect in all of baseball (26th) and May is the 49th-ranked prospect in baseball. Gonsolin and Peters are not in the top 100.

I’ll let you catch your breath.

That may seem rich, but I’ll explain why it really isn’t more than market value. If Chapman or Miller is worth a top prospect who is within the top-25 prospects in all of baseball for just a few months, then the Dodgers will need to give up significantly more than that to land Vazquez.

Ruiz would be the headliner who could help the Pirates win now along with Yimi Garcia, with the red-headed pitcher May being the headliner for the future. Gonsolin and D.J. Peters have also been shown to have major league upside without a clear path to playing time for the Dodgers.

Send them to a team who needs a youth movement like the Pirates, and they will have to send back a package of reciprocal value in Felipe Vazquez. If you’re thinking that there is no way that Felipe Vazquez is worth this astronomical cost, I’ll compare him to the league-wide relief environment on the next slide to help dispel this opinion.

PITTSBURGH, PA – JULY 07: Felipe Vazquez #73 of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch in the ninth inning during the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park on July 7, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Comparing the Elite Relievers

Earlier in the article, I went over the price of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Mark Melancon, the three biggest rental relievers in recent memory.

But since Vazquez would not be a rental but a four+ year cog in the Dodgers’ postseason machine, a better comparison would be a reliever acquired to pitch more than one half-season. That reliever would be last season’s saves leader Edwin Diaz.

The Seattle Mariners sent Diaz to the New York Mets this past offseason, with the key piece being sent back to the Pacific Northwest being young outfielder Jared Kelenic. Kelenic is now the 22nd-best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com, making him more highly rated than any Dodgers prospect as the rankings stand today.

If the Dodgers want to acquire Vazquez then, they again will likely have to provide at least one of these top-25 overall prospects.

But do you not think Vazquez is in the Edwin Diaz or Aroldis Chapman tier? Let’s look at the numbers.

While Vazquez has not had the playoff exposure of Chapman, Miller or Melancon, Melancon had not had playoff experience before leaving Pittsburgh and he excelled in the NL playoffs against the Dodgers.

But his regular-season numbers may be the best in the business, no matter how you slice them.

Thus far this season, Vazquez has hurled 43.1 innings with a 1.87 ERA (14th best amongst relievers with at least 30 innings). His best features though involve his strikeouts, highlighting his electric stuff and his ability to come into a game and completely shut down offenses. His 14.12 K/9 is 6th-best amongst relievers this season.

But what he would do to most help the Dodgers isn’t just striking hitters out. Vazquez would need to be a shutdown lefty in high leverage situations against the heart of the order of the opposition.

More from LA Dodgers News

In high leverage situations this season, Vazquez has allowed a minuscule triple-slash line of .164/.200/.254 with 23 punchouts in 18 2/3 innings pitched. Against lefties, this season, his K/9 jumps up to 16.62 K/9 and his walk rate drops to below 6%.

But now let’s look at how he’s fared against the best hitters in the NL who he would need to take down in order for the Dodgers to get back to the title bout.

This season, Vazquez has faced Christian Yelich of the Brewers twice, striking him out each time, though in their five 2018 battles, Yelich went 3-5 with a double and 2 strikeouts. Moustakas and Grandal, the two supporting cast lefties on the Brewers, are hitless with 4 strikeouts between them against Vazquez in 2019.

For the Washington Nationals, this season Anthony Rendon is 0-2 with a walk and Juan Soto is 1-2 with a double and a strikeout. And on the Chicago Cubs, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are a combined 0-3 with3 strikeouts against Vazquez, while Wilson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo have been able to earn a hit apiece against the lefty.

Next. Breaking down the Dodgers' catching situation. dark

In all, these sample sizes are obviously too small, but his experience in the NL Central makes him a more dangerous reliever than someone less experienced in taking on the likes of Yelich or Baez. Vazquez is a killer reliever and needs to be the prime target if the Dodgers want to do as much as possible to win this season.

Home / LA Dodgers News

Well Dodgers fans, its that critical time of year again. We have made it to that ultimate fingernail-chewing, hair-pulling, a frustration-inducing moment of the summer: the July 31 trade deadline.

More from LA Dodgers News

Schedule