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3 Dodgers who’ll be hurt by MLB banning the shift in 2023

By Adam Weinrib |
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a three run home run against the San Diego Padres in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a three run home run against the San Diego Padres in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
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Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be among the deepest offenses in baseball with or without the shift during the 2023 MLB season — and, of course, there are plenty of hurdles we have to beat back as a group before we even start to worry about the implications of those rule changes.

Bigger bases got you down? Freaking out about a pitch clock? Let’s settle the CBT and play real-live baseball in 2022, folks. Just saying.

Still, it’s worth examining what the implications of the shift’s complete removal could be. Are we about to see a rise in left-handed power hitters’ collective OPS? Are slap hitters about to get the boot from the league, no longer able to take advantage of their speed by doubling down the third base line on a standard ground ball?

Will an unsuspecting second baseman take a high-exit-velo liner to the gut after getting accustomed to standing so much further back in the outfield? Our answers are still a year away, but we’re excited to find out!

These three Dodgers are decidedly less excited, though, as their 2021 numbers indicate they’ll be losing additional opportunities to do damage when the shift is removed.

Will losing the defensive alignment crush their spirits? Doubtful. But watch for an adjustment period after the configuration is taken away.

3 Dodgers who could struggle when MLB bans the shift in 2023

3. Max Muncy

When Max Muncy comes back from his devastating 2021 elbow injury (either as a second baseman or first baseman? eh?), he’ll have one more partial season to enjoy the surprisingly friendly confines of the shift.

In 2023, it’s game over, though.

In 2021, Muncy faced a shift in an overwhelming number of his plate appearances, getting used to the view at an MVP clip. 90.1% of his plate appearances featured a shifted infield, and Muncy solved the riddle with a .382 wOBA.

Naturally, his sample size without a shift is quite small, but he saw a huge dropoff, posting a .335 mark in those remaining plate appearances.

Clearly, Muncy is not among those who has been intimidated into whiffing, and he should continue to thrive with his unique blend of power and patience no matter what defense is standing in front of him.

However, to act like he didn’t receive a benefit from the left side being vacated would be inaccurate.

Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

2. Justin Turner

Any break Justin Turner can get as he ages would be much appreciated. Unfortunately, he might be losing a benefit in 2023 … just as the Dodgers have to decide whether or not to pick up his team option for his age-38 season.

Already a difficult decision regardless for someone who’s become a franchise icon, but now it’s been made all the more difficult thanks to some rule changes beyond anyone’s control.

Turner was the polar opposite of Muncy in 2021, rarely being shifted upon and facing almost the exact reverse splits from what the slugging first baseman (or second baseman?!) encountered. The third baseman saw 10.6% shifts and 89.4% typical alignments, and used his limited plate appearances with a wonky infield to help beef up his season averages.

During the bulk of his ABs, Turner posted a .344 wOBA against a classic MLB defense. But in his 65 plate appearances against the shift, he crushed the baseball to the tune of a .476 mark, blowing the doors off his averages in the smaller sample size.

Of course, Turner’s 2023 season will look the same as the vast majority of his 2021 campaign. Losing those 65-70 plate appearances, though, takes free offense off the board for LA.

Trea Turner #6 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Trea Turner #6 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

1. Trea Turner

If Trea Turner re-ups with the Dodgers either before or after the 2022 season, the team can unfortunately expect a monstrous regression without the shift to rely on in 2023.

Kidding! Kidding. He’ll still be great. But Turner is certainly among the modern superstars who take full advantage in rare situations where the shift is offered to them.

The infield speedster is the platonic ideal of a player you can’t shift on. You want to give the burner third base? He’ll take a single, double or triple, no problem. If he stops at first, he might be able to make it to second one or two pitches later anyway. There’s no limiting Turner’s progress around the horn if you’re giving him a free base to start things off.

Of course, against a standard alignment, he can also rope liners into the seats with regularity. He’s a 30-homer bat. There’s no defense for those bombs.

Much like Justin Turner, Trea faced a classic defense in 91.8% of his plate appearances, posting a .369 wOBA.

Against the shift in 53 plate appearances, though? A patently absurd .546 wOBA. .546!!

Turner’s life won’t change drastically once the shift is taken off the table, but again, when you shift on him, you’re essentially gifting him a free run-scoring opportunity. He’ll miss those.

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