Awful Dodgers stat vs fastballs provides clarity (but not solutions) to LA's worrisome skid

The Los Angeles Dodgers have somewhat gotten back on track by beating up one of the worst bullpens in baseball — the Kansas City Royals — but before that, and even still, the struggles were real. Think back to Sunday when Dave Roberts made the move to pinch hit for Teoscar Hernandez with Max Muncy. The hope was that a different bat could do what the lineup couldn’t do all series. 

Four pitches later, two fastballs, the game was over. Muncy struck out. The Arizona Diamondbacks won. And a brutal road trip had mercifully ended. It was eight losses in nine games and 15 of their last 24.

The vibe went from bulletproof to a little shakier, with veterans like Freddie Freeman being sure to remind people how good the Dodgers are. But the problem is they’re struggling with the ol’ number one.

The Dodgers are struggling against fastballs

Since July 1, only the Tampa Bay Rays have seen a higher rate of fastballs than the Dodgers, who have seen a four-seamer or a sinker 49.8% of the time. If you add the cutter, Dodgers hitters have seen a pitch in the fastball family 58.4% of the time (the Rays still lead with cutters included). And the results are bad.

They’ve hit just .250 with a .313 OBP and .392 SLG. The average is eighth-worst. The OBP is second-worst. The SLG is sixth-worst. The league has caught on, and the scouting report is very simple: challenge Dodgers hitters inside the zone. They’ll get themselves out. 

Roberts basically confirmed that after the loss on Sunday, saying the series made it “very clear that we weren’t hitting the fastball and we were exposing ourselves to the changeup with the secondary specifically.” He’s essentially saying that the hitters are guessing and not reacting, which feels odd for a lineup with this much experience and talent.

It’s the experienced bats who are part of the problem. Mookie Betts homered in the Royals series, but has a 92 wRC+ in August. Muncy has had big hits, but is sitting at 88. Freeman is at 72. Shohei Ohtani is at 119, but that’s far off what you’d expect from him. The most productive bat is actually Kyle Tucker, which is a welcome sight for Dodgers fans, but they’d like it if he wasn’t a one-man show. 

The Muncy question is an interesting one because there have been questions about whether he fits into the long-term picture for a while. That’s another conversation for another day, but this version of him getting big at bats in the middle of the lineup isn’t scaring anyone. 

To be fair, the issues run deeper than just the offense’s inability to turn around a fastball. Justin Wrobleski had been a great story in the first half. He got hit hard on Sunday and has struggled, giving up nine home runs in his last three starts. He’s been honest about it. “I’m just not good enough right now.” When the starter can’t get it done and the bats can’t come back, well, that’ll do it. It certainly explains one of the worst stretches this franchise has been through in some time.

The calendar is a friend, though. Tarik Skubal is with the team. He was brought in specifically to make them harder to beat and win even if the offense isn’t fully cooperating. Blake Snell is back, looking un-hittable at times in five stellar innings against Kansas City. Adding that kind of firepower gives this roster some margin for error. 

But starting pitching can’t help fix an offense that’s struggling with fastballs. Roberts mentioned that the hitters simply aren’t making adjustments, but there probably have to be some questions about how easily they even can.

With Daulton Rushing out, the Dodgers are routinely running lineups out there where Andy Pages is by far the youngest. Freeman is 36. Betts is 33. Muncy is 35. Hernandez is 33. Ohtani is 32. Tucker is still just 29, but the point is that older players struggle more with the fastball. It can’t be discounted as a factor.

If they can’t adjust, the Dodgers still have enough to win, especially in short spurts in the postseason. But to do the unthinkable and get that three-peat, they’ll need their at bats to look different from the ones they’ve shown over the last few weeks.

Facing the Royals papered over some issues, and the Dodgers handled fastballs much better against them. But if the improvement doesn’t last, the front office is going to have to figure something out.

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