Well, that didn't take long. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are locked in an early two-horse race for the NL West crown. This is despite some early Dodgers injury trouble and the Padres lacking any serious help from stars like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. That's just how loaded these two squads are, and a three-game series between the two is unlikely to be the main deciding factor in who's seeded higher once the NL postseason comes around.
However, that hasn't stopped MLB pundits from making sweeping declarations about the Dodgers — on paper the most talented roster money can buy — just under a third of the way through a long 162-game slate. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic raised some eyebrows just this week when he declared the Padres likely favorites should they take the NL West lead.
“What they [the Padres] do when they get a lead is they don’t lose it.”@Ken_Rosenthal highlights what makes the Padres dangerous despite offensive inconsistency. pic.twitter.com/RUI5FcWsPA
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) May 19, 2026
Rob Parker quickly followed suit.
"I've been saying it all year that they're going to win the division!"@robparkerMLBbro is all in on the Padres 👀#MLBNowShowdown pic.twitter.com/RhAfaHxSUJ
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) May 19, 2026
What MLB pundits don't understand about the Dodgers-Padres rivalry
Betting against the Dodgers at this juncture is unwise, to say the least. Yes, you can easily point to the lack of production from Machado and Tatis Jr. as examples of why this Padres team is different — perhaps they're better built to outlast struggles from two of their best hitters — but Dodgers fans can easily suggest the opposite. What if Machado and Tatis Jr. don't turn it around? And heck, what of the Dodgers arsenal, which will eventually make its way back from the injured list?
If the Padres are indeed little brother, the Dodgers are the big brother they just can't seem to beat when it counts. One day after taking the NL West lead away from the Dodgers, the Padres had a chance to increase their division advantage, only to fall short. San Diego took a 4-2 lead into the top of the fifth inning on Tuesday night. They failed to score again, with the Dodgers adding the deciding run in the ninth on an Andy Pages sacrifice fly. Pages survived a nine-pitch at-bat against the best pitcher the Padres (or arguably any team in baseball) has to offer in Mason Miller.
FULL AT-BAT: Mason Miller vs. Andy Pages 9-pitch battle 🍿 https://t.co/ApUR10NwYT pic.twitter.com/kdYbYZG5WR
— MLB (@MLB) May 20, 2026
Tell us again how the Dodgers can't overtake San Diego? Even when they're severely overmatched (and this is no insult to Pages), Los Angeles finds a way.
Why the Dodgers are built to outlast the Padres in the NL West
If this is indeed a two-horse race — and thus far the Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies have shown little to assume anything otherwise — then the Dodgers should be deemed formidable favorites not just in the NL West, but perhaps the entire National League. This isn't breaking news, as the Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series for a reason and added even more talent this winter.
The Dodgers have played it safe with their injured starting pitchers so far this season. Both Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell are on the injured list and set to undergo the same NanoScope procedure as Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. This means, assuming both procedures go off without a hitch, they'll be back come July and August, when the pressure will really start to mount. Add in River Ryan, who looked excellent in his four starts so far this season before going down with an injury of his own, and the Dodgers are built for the dog days of summer.
What the pundits fail to recognize is now HAS to be the time the Padres take advantage of the Dodgers faults. The fact that they haven't ought to concern AJ Preller and Co., because if the Dodgers are still in this position at the trade deadline, they can always swing a trade or two to put them over the top. Heck, even Skubal himself could be in play.
