Dodgers-Mets bidding war for Tarik Skubal could end up looking more like a game of chicken

Los Angeles Dodgers fans are long past the point of being surprised by a Tarik Skubal headline. Ever since Andrew Friedman pried him away from the Detroit Tigers at the deadline, the rumor mill hasn't taken a day off.

First came the bromance with Blake Snell that had people dreaming of a long-term pairing of Cy Young lefties, then Skubal's admission on "Pardon My Take" that he'd love to return to Detroit, then word that the Chicago Cubs "badly" want him.

So when Chelsea Janes reported that the New York Mets were expected to match whatever Skubal is offered elsewhere, Dodgers fans were probably rolling their eyes. Now when the news is switching back and forth, and both teams are using the media to play their games, the facts remain the facts.

And if anyone was worried, the good news (for people wanting Skubal back in Dodger blue) is that ESPN's Alden Gonzalez has written that his sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers, and the organization holds one advantage the Mets can't match in a perennial shot at a title.

What stands out is how quiet both front offices are being, though. Friedman hasn't said too much more than the Dodgers would "continue to talk to Scott [Boras]" and were still wrapping their arms around their offseason plan. David Stearns, meanwhile, talked about the Mets needing to develop pitchers at the top of their rotation over the long term, which is hardly the language of a team excited to hand out the richest pitching contract in history. So what gives?

Scott Boras using the lockout deadline to force Dodgers & Mets to sign Tarik Skubal

Scott Boras, Skubal's super agent, doesn't do quiet. He told The Athletic's Andy McCullough that many teams would be better off signing players before the new CBA than after it, and he has since warned that no club should let its rivals operate unilaterally in the market while it tells its fans it chose to wait. He has a track record to point to, too, having closed Corey Seager's and Marcus Semien's deals with Texas right before the last lockout froze the market in 2021.

That's where the game of chicken comes in. Gonzalez reported in October that it would be really difficult for the Dodgers to justify a massive deal before knowing the sport's next economic model, and owners are still pushing for a salary cap. MLB's latest proposal would keep the current luxury tax system for 2027 and delay a $258.2 million hard cap until 2028. If the Mets truly will match anything, waiting out Boras is a dangerous bet, because Skubal could be off the board before Friedman ever decides.

Despite the pressure, both organization need to look at the facts. Rushing into a deal just to "beat a competitor" might not be the smartest move, when looking at all the peripherals. Skubal has put up some of the most historic numbers of any pitcher in history over the past few seasons, but also missed six weeks cleaning up an elbow issue this past year. He also has a 2017 Tommy John surgery and a 2022 flexor tendon procedure on his record, and he turns 30 on November 20.

MLB Trade Rumors projects nine years and $425 million, while agents told ESPN's Buster Olney that a shorter, Kyle Tucker-style deal at around $60 million a year may be the more realistic play to sign Skubal. While I bet the next few seasons will still be electric, signing a pitcher with that history for nine more seasons is probably creating the hesitation.

Another curveball is how that money gets structured. Deferrals have been the Dodgers' signature tool, from Shohei Ohtani to the $65 million pushed down the road in Snell's deal, and owners proposed eliminating deferred contracts back in June. Signing Skubal under today's rules would let Friedman get creative in a way the next CBA might not allow.

At some point, somebody has to blink first. With Boras holding the stopwatch and Steve Cohen holding the checkbook, Dodgers fans should hope Friedman decides that playing it cool isn't worth watching Skubal take the mound in Queens.

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