Dodgers might've done Walker Buehler a favor not giving him the qualifying offer

The Dodgers, to no one's surprise, extended the qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernández in an attempt to keep him in LA for one more year below his market price. They didn't extend the same courtesy to Walker Buehler, which was a little more surprising given Buehler's former first-round draft pick status, his two All-Star nods, his history of incredible work for the Dodgers, and his memorable last inning of the World Series in 2024.

But Buehler had a lot of baggage he was saddled with from the regular season. He only managed to pitch 75 1/3 innings after starting the season late and dealing with hip issues when he returned, and he posted a 5.38 ERA when he was healthy.

It led to some early predictions about what a contract would look like, which landed in the vicinity of one year and $11 million. He could always get that with the Dodgers, but he slipped low down their priority list of re-signings because of his regular season performance.

So it wasn't altogether surprising that they didn't give Buehler the QO, which Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported he almost certainly would've taken. However, Rosenthal also had details on why the team didn't go that route, and for the Buehler stans out there desperate to see him come back: it's a little more conscionable than you'd think.

Dodgers had a good reason not to extend the qualifying offer to Walker Buehler

Rosenthal wrote that the Dodgers would've damaged Buehler's market if they'd given him the QO, which — at about $10 million more than he's expected to make as an uninhibited free agent — he would've had no choice but to accept. Rejecting it when the difference between the offer and his market price were so stark would've been pretty much out of the question.

So the Dodgers not going this route to keep Buehler means that they could potentially get him back for a lot less than the $21.05 million qualifying offer, but it also means that Buehler can fully explore the market and try to get more than the $11 million he's expected to. With the way the market has panned out for mid-tier pitchers like Luis Severino, it feels likely that he'll try to push a deal to $13-14 million, with a (likely) option for Year 2.

If the Dodgers also had some hesitance about keeping Buehler on for another year instead of letting him go to work out his issues with another team, then could you really blame them? He made it clear during the postseason that he still has it in him to be great, but now that the Dodgers might have seven rostered starters at some point in 2025, they might have moved on from Buehler, and he might be better off for it.