If Walker Buehler was hoping to re-sign with the Dodgers in free agency or even angle for an extension, he'll be sorely disappointed. Having to undergo Tommy John was an unavoidable obstacle, and he still had every chance to earn his keep in the rotation again, but his 6.09 ERA over 10 starts and extra trip to the IL has pretty much shut down the possibility for a return. (At least, we hope that it did.)
It's unclear what Buehler's free agency will look like when his 2024 season has been so absymal. A good comparison might actually be current teammate Jack Flaherty, who signed a one-year deal with the underdog Tigers for $14 million this season after he played his way out of the potential for a larger or longer deal.
Of course, that's worked out well for Flaherty, but for now Buehler just seems destined for a one-year deal, with a potential bounce back season pending.
Jeff Passan, in a free agency preview for ESPN (subscription required), referred to Buehler (along with Shane Bieber) as a "pillow candidate" and wrote that a one-year deal makes the most sense for him. The Dodgers will need to close ranks within the rotation next season, so it definitely seems that Buehler will have to look elsewhere for any deal at all.
Dodgers Rumors: Jeff Passan speculates Walker Buehler will only fetch a one-year deal in impending free agency
If we had to project next year's Dodgers rotation, it'd probably go as follows: Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, and Clayton Kershaw (you might also change out Gonsolin with Flaherty, if the Dodgers re-sign him in the offseason). Although injuries have prevented them from doing so at almost every turn, the Dodgers have wanted to put up a six-man rotation for most of the season. If all goes well with Ohtani's recovery, this could be close to what the Dodgers will be working with.
However, LA also has hopeful (and relatively more effective than Buehler) young pitchers raring to go in Triple-A. Emmet Sheehan could return next season, and so could River Ryan (late in the campaign, though unlikely). Nick Frasso is also on that list, and Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski have made their cases this season.
There simply isn't room for Buehler, not when he's pitching like this. The Dodgers love a fixer-upper and have already expressed loyalty to Buehler this season by not cutting him despite his struggles. But when they have an out, they should take it. If Buehler can return to his former glory elsewhere, then great, but the Dodgers are more than set as it is.