Dodgers' Tarik Skubal usage screams likely outcome in free agency come offseason

There's protecting a prized pending free agent, and then there's whatever the Los Angeles Dodgers are doing with Tarik Skubal.

Skubal threw 106 pitches Saturday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates, battling through a difficult first inning before eventually completing seven frames with 11 strikeouts in Los Angeles' 4-3 win.

The workload wasn't especially outrageous in isolation. But consider the four highest pitch counts of Skubal's major-league career: 109 pitches seven days ago, 108 pitches on June 28, 2022, 107 pitches on Sept. 30, 2025 and 106 pitches on Saturday.

In other words, two of the four most taxing outings of Skubal's entire career have come within one week of each other, less than three months before one of the most important free agencies baseball has seen from a starting pitcher.

And we're supposed to believe Scott Boras is completely comfortable watching that happen without having a pretty good idea how November is going to play out?

Skubal is a Boras client who will become a free agent after this season, and everything points toward him pursuing a contract capable of resetting the market for pitchers. He already won a record $32 million salary in arbitration this year, and a deal north of $400 million hardly seems unreasonable considering his age, track record and hardware.

Nothing about that screams, "Be careful with the asset." Instead, the Dodgers are treating Skubal exactly how you would expect a championship contender to treat an ace it acquired specifically to win another World Series: keep giving him the baseball and worry about the consequences later. Perhaps that's because there aren't going to be many consequences for Los Angeles.

Dodgers aren't treating Tarik Skubal like a rental ahead of massive free agency

MLB rules obviously prevent the Dodgers and Skubal from arranging some wink-and-nod future contract, and Boras isn't going to sacrifice the leverage that comes with taking arguably the best pitcher available onto the open market. But it's difficult to ignore what Skubal's usage suggests.

If Skubal were preparing to enter a completely uncertain marketplace with 29 other teams potentially determining his future earnings, you'd think there might be at least some incentive to protect his arm. This is, after all, a pitcher who underwent an elbow procedure earlier this season.

Either everyone involved has become remarkably unconcerned about protecting a pitcher whose next contract could exceed $400 million, or there is an enormous amount of confidence about where that money is ultimately coming from.

And realistically, how many teams can even play in that neighborhood? The New York Mets can. The Dodgers certainly can. So if the Dodgers and Skubal are of the understanding the desire and money will be there, what's to worry about?

Los Angeles already surrendered significant prospect capital to acquire Skubal knowing he could leave months later. Every extra pitch makes it seem like this is far from a short-term relationship.

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