How different would Roki Sasaki's career be if he entered 2025 MLB Draft?

After Roki Sasaki signed with the Dodgers, there was a brief discussion around the fairness of the posting system and how much better it could've been for baseball if he'd had to go into the 2025 draft class. There's no one complaining about that anymore, given Sasaki's injury and poor performance before he went down, but Sasaki as a draft pick rather than an international signing is an interesting thought experiment.

If Sasaki had gone into the draft, the Dodgers would never have gotten him to LA. They're picking 40th and then 41st in Competitive Balance Round A — thanks to their trade with the Reds that sent Gavin Lux to Cincinnati. Even though hindsight is 20/20 and ardent Dodgers haters might argue otherwise, there's no way that Sasaki would've gone any lower than the No. 1 pick if he was draft eligible.

That means he would've been doomed to the Nationals, who have the first overall pick this year. Instead, it seems that Ethan Holliday, son of Matt Holliday and brother of Jackson, or lefty college pitcher Kade Anderson will be consigned to that fate.

Dodgers never would've had a shot at Roki Sasaki in 2025 MLB Draft

You can say what you want about the way Sasaki's panned out this year (or rather hasn't panned out), but if he'd gone to the draft, no one would've let a 23-year-old with four years of professional experience already under his belt go late, even if he didn't come with all of the same accolades.

His rookie season has been a massive disappointment for the Dodgers — there's no way to sugarcoat that — but he still has a better chance of getting back to form with the Dodgers than the Nationals or even the Angels, who have the second overall pick.

The way that Sasaki's free agency played out was about as fair as the process was going to get. He wasn't cost prohibitive for anybody (other than maybe the Marlins or White Sox), so everybody could try to make their pitch. A reported 2/3 of the league made their pitch. Of course, the Dodgers had a lot of obvious upside to tempt him with, but he was able to make a fully informed choice.

If Sasaki coming to the Dodgers was an injustice, then him getting stuck on the Nationals would've been even worse, and there's no question that he would've ended up the first pick on Sunday, no matter what.