Jeff Passan's Tarik Skubal free agency report leaves Dodgers with only one obstacle

Jeff Passan just gave Los Angeles Dodgers fans an early glimpse at what keeping Tarik Skubal beyond this season could require, and the number is borderline absurd.

According to the ESPN insider, Skubal could potentially receive twice the seven-year, $245 million contract Stephen Strasburg signed with the Washington Nationals in 2019 — provided MLB's next collective bargaining agreement does not include a salary cap. That would put Skubal's ceiling somewhere around $490 million.

Passan noted that Skubal turns 30 in November, meaning a contract approaching that figure would probably need to stretch at least 10 years. Still, he expects somebody to pay an enormous price because there simply isn't another pitcher like Skubal available.

For the Dodgers, that increasingly makes this feel like a situation with two potential endings. They either win a bidding war with Steve Cohen and the New York Mets, or Skubal becomes a Met. Those are the only options.

Sure, other teams could theoretically enter the conversation. But how many are legitimately prepared to guarantee a pitcher something approaching $500 million?

Los Angeles obviously belongs on that extremely short list. The Dodgers already gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 12-year, $325 million contract, while their 2026 luxury-tax payroll has again pushed toward $400 million.

And then there are the Mets. Cohen has already demonstrated that conventional contract boundaries don't mean much when New York identifies a superstar it wants. Juan Soto's 15-year, $765 million contract remains the most obvious evidence.

Jeff Passan’s Tarik Skubal prediction preps for Dodgers vs Mets showdown

Skubal also happens to fill exactly the kind of need the Mets could decide to attack aggressively after a disappointing 2026 season: a legitimate, unquestioned ace.

That's what makes Passan's report so ominous for Los Angeles.

Skubal has hardly given the Dodgers a reason to reconsider their deadline gamble. He owns a 2.93 ERA through his first seven starts with Los Angeles and most recently went 7 1/3 innings while allowing two runs against the Cincinnati Reds.

He's pitching like somebody the Dodgers should desperately want to keep. Unfortunately, he's also pitching like somebody Cohen could desperately want to steal.

There remains one enormous variable. MLB's current CBA expires Dec. 1, and owners have pushed for a salary cap, something that could completely reshape Skubal's market. Without one, though? The Dodgers shouldn't expect a hometown discount because Skubal spent two months in Los Angeles. They should expect Cohen.

And if Passan's nearly $500 million projection proves even remotely accurate, keeping Skubal could require the Dodgers to beat the one owner in baseball who has repeatedly shown he's willing to turn bidding wars into financial staring contests.

Otherwise, Skubal's Dodgers tenure may ultimately be remembered as one very expensive rental.

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