Luxury tax reality has Kyle Tucker contract looking worse and worse for Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers don't just flirt with the luxury tax; they spit in its face. We don't remotely blame Andrew Friedman and Co. for that reality, as the Dodgers ownership group is making money hand over first thanks to back-to-back World Series titles, and they're in search of a third. Nothing will stop the Dodgers but a salary cap, and even that so-called solution to their dominance lacks forward thinking.

Yes, the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million contract this past winter. They did so because they could afford it. Tucker, or so they thought, filled a corner outfield need the Dodgers were lacking. So far this season, he has an OPS under .700, which is below the league average.

Tucker hasn't lived up to the hype. The Dodgers have, as they possess the best record in baseball and the top spot in our MLB Power Rankings. But Tucker's lack of production could cost the Dodgers long term, and it's worth discussing.

Even the Dodgers are feeling the ramifications of Kyle Tucker's struggles

The $240 million over four years owed to Tucker is a lot of money, even for the Dodgers. That value is even worse if Tucker fails to live up to the hype, as the Dodgers will have to replace his production somehow in a market that is only increasing. Free agency, should it occur in its traditional nature despite what looks to be a looming lockout, doesn't offer all that many productive outfield bats.

Per Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, if you include the luxury tax penalty for signing him, the Dodgers have invested over $119 million for Tucker this season alone. That's more than the Opening Day payroll of 11 teams. As Verducci wrote earlier this week, the numbers back up the argument that Tucker has been an utter waste of money.

"Tucker, 29, has been a huge disappointment. The lack of pop in his bat has been alarming. Tucker has posted career full-season worsts in bat speed (71.3), exit velocity (88.8), hard-hit percentage (39%), rollover groundballs (22.4%), barrel rate (5.8%), two-strike hitting (.165) and runners in scoring position (.247). His frustration sometimes has been evident," Verducci wrote.

When the Dodgers paid Tucker his premium price tag, they did so assuming his decline would occur long after he left. Instead, his bat's been lacking and his fielding has gone from close to league-average (52nd percentile in run value) to one of the worst in MLB (22nd percentile run value).

As for what the Dodgers can do to mitigate some of the risk of Tucker never quite returning to form — and he's hitting just .222 with a .554 OPS in July so far — their best hope could be internal production, specifically from the farm system.

All four of the Dodgers top prospects are outfielders, and rank in the top-30 of MLB Pipeline's prospect rankings. Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota, and Zyhir Hope all project to make the major leagues at some point in the 2027 season. Should Tucker's struggles continue, he may just become the most expensive bench bat in baseball — though that's better than the alternative.

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