3 reasons the Dodgers can catch the Diamondbacks and 2 they may not

Despite issues in their rotation and bullpen, the Los Angeles Dodgers have gotten contributions from guys like Bobby Miller to keep things afloat there while the offense has remained one of the best in the league with certifiable MVP candidates in Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

Sure, they aren’t quite on the pace that we have come to expect from them in recent years. However, considering the injuries/setbacks in 2023, remaining one of the scarier opponents on any team’s schedule is a pretty good spot to be. It certainly also has to feel good that the San Diego Padres -- initially believed to be the Dodgers' biggest threat in the NL West -- are off to a rough start with an offense that has really under-performed to start the season.

That brings us to ...

Can the Dodgers catch the Diamondbacks?

The problem this year is that LA has some very tough competition from an unlikely source in the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs finished 14 games below .500 last year and while many thought they would be better than that disaster, no one thought that they would be among the best teams in the National League through most of the first half in 2023. But here we are.

The Dodgers are currently looking up at the Diamondbacks, who are not showing much of any signs of slowing down, while LA is wondering, given everything we know up until now, if there's a chance Arizona can be chased down in the standings.

Here are a few reasons why the Dodgers can indeed catch their rivals ... and also other factors we'll acknowledge that might make it unlikely.

Can: The Dodgers are still, at least on paper, a better team than Arizona …for now

Despite the fact that the standings are the ultimate arbiter of which team has the better season, there are a lot of reasons to suggest the Dodgers are still the better team right now and that SHOULD average out over the season. The offense has remained one of the best in the entire league and, more importantly, a tier above what Arizona has done so far this season. 

The pitching staffs for each team have both been middle of the pack, but there's reason to believe the Dodgers have more upside coming with Miller continuing his ascension as well as Julio Urias eventually returning from his hamstring injury.

There's more than that, though. The Dodgers have been strictly better in terms of run differential and, while that is far from a perfect metric, scoring a lot more runs than one’s opponents is a winning formula. Neither team’s bullpens are particularly imposing, so there's an opportunity for both teams to make an impact at the trade deadline.

One area that Arizona seems to have a big advantage, however, is defense. The D-backs have been one of the better defensive teams in baseball in 2023 while the Dodgers are in the middle of the pack for Outs Above Average and actively bad per Fangraphs’ overall defensive rankings overall.

Can't: Zac Gallen and Corbin Carroll are monsters and that could be a problem for the Dodgers

The Dodgers have a ton of stars on their roster, but Arizona has some studs of their own, including Zac Gallen and Corbin Carroll. We’ll start with Gallen who has been criminally under-appreciated for a couple of years now. He posted a 4.3 fWAR season last season with a 2.53 ERA in 2022 and, while he has looked a bit more human very recently, he's still one of the favorites to win the Cy Young in the National League in 2023.

Corbin Carroll is even more troubling for the Dodgers as he impacts games in so many ways (in addition to his advanced metrics being all-around amazing). He hits the ball hard a lot; he's one of the faster players in the league; he draws walks and doesn’t strike out a ton despite being a rookie; and he's a Gold Glove-caliber defender in center field. 

While the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. rightly gets a lot of attention for his chances at getting a 40/40 season this year, Carroll has a non-zero chance of making a run at it, too. These sorts of players can carry a team single-handedly, even if the roster isn’t deep because they're that good and their skillset makes the guys around them better.

Can: The Dodgers’ offense is in a class of its own

When you look at these two teams’ position players against one another on a leaderboard, you see a relatively small gap in overall fWAR (although LA does come out ahead). However, a deeper look suggests that the gap between the two offenses once you scrape out defensive contributions (which are still very important as mentioned before) is bigger than that.

The Dodgers’ team wRC+ is significantly higher than Arizona’s, as is their team ISO (a power measuring metric), walk rate, and run total. All of this is despite the fact that Arizona has been significantly “luckier” on balls in play -- their team BABIP is much higher that the Dodgers'.

A lot of this points to the Diamondbacks playing over their heads a bit and the Dodgers underperforming a bit, which makes some sense. Max Muncy struggling to hit above .200 for three of the past four seasons certainly isn’t helping, but Mookie Betts is having some decidedly mediocre luck from a BABIP perspective yet again and James Outman is having some real rookie growing pains after a hot start. Plus, the Dodgers having Miguel Rojas’ sub 40 wRC+ over a significant number of plate appearances both isn’t helping the overall picture and probably isn’t indicative of what the future looks like.

Look, if the Diamondbacks continue to have half a dozen guys in their lineups with .350 BABIPs the rest of the way, then yeah ... the Dodgers are in trouble. However, some of that luck is bound to come back to earth, especially with how young some of those guys are. The Dodgers have a ton of guys on offense with track records of being elite while Arizona does not.

Can't: The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have some very different trade deadline restrictions that could favor Arizona

Both teams have some very similar needs with the trade deadline approaching. Both teams have bullpens that are difficult to trust. Both teams, to varying degrees, would like to add some depth to their starting rotations. Unsurprisingly, that's also the shopping list for virtually every contending team across baseball because one can never have enough pitching as arms have been dropping left and right this season.

The Dodgers, however, may be restricted with who they can trade for because they “probably” want to shed some salary already for luxury tax/Ohtani pursuit purposes, and taking on a significant amount of salary could create some issues. They won’t stand pat in all likelihood, especially with the bullpen, but restraint could be in the cards. 

Meanwhile the Diamondbacks, who do not have the minor-league depth the Dodgers have, have every reason to go all in here. Opportunities to topple the Dodgers in the division do not come often and they have some clearly defined needs with enough prospect/player capital to go get a couple higher-end options without having to worry about being financially hamstrung.