Dodgers: 4 takeaways from the first 4 weeks of the MLB season
MLB Opening Day 2023 was Thursday, March 30. That means that the season has now officially been through its first four weeks. While that may not be enough time to figure out who will be in the World Series this year -- or even who will be in the playoffs -- it's a big enough sample size to start drawing some conclusions.
In the case of the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's a mixed bag. That'll happen when your roster undergoes significant offseason alterations.
The Dodgers saw many players leave the organization since November, so it hasn't been easy patching up every last hole/void. Los Angeles holds a 13-13 record, good enough for second place in the NL West.
Worse things have happened, but this isn't a Dodgers team that looks built to win 95-plus games. What's contributed to the early, uninspiring output? And can it be fixed? There are positives, too. What are they, though? A month in, here's where the Dodgers stand.
Players missing games has heavily impacted this season
While James Outman and Freddie Freeman have played in all 26 games so far, the same cannot be said for any other player on the roster. Miguel Rojas and Will Smith have only played in 11 games each, and while some games Smith missed were rest days, he was placed on the IL back on April 16 and has remained there since. J.D. Martinez missed the entirety of the Dodgers' most recent series in Pittsburgh with back tightness, while Max Muncy missed the series on the paternity list. The Dodgers lost two of three in Pittsburgh, and other than an eight-run performance in Tuesday's series opener, the Dodgers' offense looked weak without their third, fourth and fifth hitters from the Opening Day lineup.
When it comes to the pitching staff, unfortunately, players missing games has also been the story of the year. From the onset of the season, injuries to Tony Gonsolin and Ryan Pepiot forced Michael Grove to take over as the fifth starter. Even though Julio Urías is off to a slow start, the trio of Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May have combined for a 3.29 ERA in 93 innings (16 starts) through Thursday's action. Gonsolin made his season debut against Pittsburgh and posted a 3.1-inning shutout. But Noah Syndergaard (who will now be the fifth starter in the rotation), and Michael Grove (who is now on the injured list) have combined for a 7.29 ERA in 42 innings (nine starts). Making matters worse for the pitching staff, the bullpen has struggled as well without the presence of Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Daniel Hudson and more key contributors (more on this specific unit later).
The Dodgers' new-look lineup still has power
Heading into Thursday's games, the Dodgers ranked second in MLB with 45 home runs and fourth in slugging percentage (.449). This is indicative of what the eye test would also tell you about this team: they can really hit for power. Muncy is leading MLB with 11 home runs and Outman is tied for sixth with seven. While the low batting average (.229, 26th in MLB) and on-base percentage (.321, 16th in MLB) have led to some offensive inconsistencies, the power numbers have allowed the Dodgers to rank fifth in MLB in runs scored (130) and seventh in OPS (.770).
Fans fully expect the power surge to continue throughout the rest of the season. Smith has missed over two weeks of games, and over those two weeks neither of the Dodgers' catchers have hit a home run. If Muncy and Outman can continue their starts to the season, getting Smith back will make this lineup even more dangerous. Pair that with the fact that the Dodgers' top stars in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have not hit as many homers as fans are accustomed to, and this lineup will continue to get scarier as the season progresses.
The bullpen needs some reinforcements
In an article that I wrote one week into the season, I claimed that the Dodgers' bullpen "may be better than we expected." Now that we have seen the bullpen in a larger sample size, we now know that it needs some help and is probably worse than we thought. While Alex Vesia, Yency Almonte and other typically reliable relievers have struggled out of the gate, the Dodgers still need depth in the bullpen even if those guys can get back on track. There was a stretch in which bullpen had gone 10 straight innings without giving up an earned run, but then the Pirates immediately tallied eight runs against them on Wednesday night.
So what can the Dodgers do about this problem? As much as it hurts to say, the best course of action might just be to wait. Treinen, Pepiot, Reyes, Hudson, J.P. Feyereisen are all on the 60-day IL, with all of them likely or possibly returning at various points in the season. The other problem is that it's not obvious what teams will be deadline sellers or buyers at the moment. For example, before the season, David Bednar could have been viewed as a potential trade target for the Dodgers, but now with the Pirates' shocking 18-8 start to the season, it's very unlikely that the team with the best record in the NL would trade away its closer. The Dodgers don't have many obvious options for trade partners, but promoting from within is also a possible strategy to help the bullpen sooner rather than later.
The Dodgers should call up more top prospects
Speaking of promoting from within, it's time for the Dodgers to look to the minor leagues and find players who can fill the obvious holes on the current roster. We've already seen Michael Busch have an impact in his MLB debut with an RBI single, and Outman has arguably been the Dodgers' second-best player so far this season. While rookies always take a bit to find their footing, if the Dodgers aren't able to make trades to address their needs, giving the youngsters a chance to grow and improve is better than watching several veterans struggle. Six of the Dodgers' top eight prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, have an MLB ETA set for 2023. Out of those six, Busch was the fourth one to arrive (Outman, Vargas and Pepiot are the others).
But as Syndergaard continues to struggle, prospects like Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are appealing alternatives to bolster the current starting rotation (or potentially the bullpen). If Jason Heyward and David Peralta continue to struggle, do the Dodgers eventually turn to Andy Pages, the sixth-best prospect in the system, or at least promote him to AAA so he can be more major-league ready in case of an injury?
All of these questions will be answered soon, and the Dodgers' upcoming homestand, as well as six games in May against the Padres, might be the catalyst to force the front office's hand. Because of San Diego's early struggles, the Dodgers bought themselves some time, but they can't count on that lasting too long.