The month of June hasn’t been very kind to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After a 3-6 stretch to start the month and three straight series losses, the Dodgers are 37-29, four games behind Arizona for first in the NL West. After six on the road, the Dodgers are back at home for a three-game series with the 29-38 Chicago White Sox.
Tonight it’ll be Tony Gonsolin on the mound for LA. After a shaky start last time out, he is 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA. Chicago will counter with Lance Lynn, who is 4-6 with a 6.72 ERA. Despite their recent struggles, the Dodgers are big home favorites tonight.
White Sox vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total
White Sox vs. Dodgers prediction and pick
In June, the problem with the Dodgers has not been the lineup; it’s been the typically reliable pitching staff. The Dodgers are eighth in MLB in OPS this month and 14th in runs scored, but are 24th in ERA, with 13 home runs allowed.
Gonsolin is a part of that struggle, after allowing four runs over five innings last time out against the Reds.
I expected a poor start from Gonsolin in that one and wouldn't be surprised by another rough one in this game. He still has very poor strikeout and walk rates and an expected ERA of 4.54. HIs FIP is in the fours as well, and his expected slugging in 39th percentile. The White Sox are 27th in runs scored this month, but have Luis Robert Jr. swinging a hot bat.
I’m tempted to take Chicago and fade Gonsolin and the struggling Dodgers, but their offense is going to thrive against Lance Lynn. Lynn is a fastball pitcher throwing 44% four-seamers, 27% cutters, and 14% sinkers. Pretty much all he has are three different fastballs.
JD Martinez, who is on fire for LA, is slugging .658 against fastballs this season with 11 of his 16 home runs, and Freddie Freeman is slugging .632 with a .719 xSLG, 20 doubles and seven home runs against the heater. Freeman against the four-seamer is No. 1 in run value in all of baseball. Mookie Betts against the sinker is No. 12.
Good luck, Lance.
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