Roki Sasaki's injury completely screwed the Dodgers out of additional draft pick

The belle of the ball on last winter's international amateur free agent market, Roki Sasaki agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers carrying a $6.5 million bonus in January that put the rest of the baseball world on notice.

Not even six months ago, the flame-throwing Japanese right-hander was practically a lock to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. Needless to say, quite a bit has changed since then.

In eight starts for the Dodgers, Sasaki pitched to a 4.72 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP and an 84 ERA+. He struggled with command, posting 22 walks against 24 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings before landing on the injured list in May with right shoulder impingement. He has since been transferred to the 60-day IL and is reportedly making progress in his recovery, but it remains to be seen whether he will pitch in the Majors again this season.

Even if Sasaki does return before the end of the season, expectations are (or should be) tempered. Rookie of the Year? Not happening. And neither is the extra draft pick the Dodgers could have gotten as a result.

Roki Sasaki's injury completely screwed the Dodgers out of additional draft pick

Despite having played professionally in Japan for five years, Sasaki was ranked the No. 1 prospect in baseball by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America entering his first Major League season. There was never any doubt that he would make Los Angeles' Opening Day roster, especially with the Dodgers opening their season against the Chicago Cubs in Japan.

Entering the 2025 season, Sasaki was BetMGM's favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award at +200 odds. If he were to win the award in his debut season, the Dodgers would receive a significant draft pick thanks to MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), a program established in the last collective bargaining agreement to discourage teams from manipulating the Major League service time of their top prospects.

Under the PPI, a player is eligible to earn his team a draft pick by winning Rookie of the Year (or finishing in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting in any of his first three seasons) if he has rookie eligibility at the start of the year, accrues nearly a full season's worth of service time, and appears in at least two of the Top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and/or ESPN.

For example, the Kansas City Royals received the No. 28 overall pick in this year's draft because shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. finished in the top three in American League MVP voting last year.

With Sasaki out of the picture (for now), it looks like the Dodgers won't be getting any additional picks in next year's draft. The best they can hope for now is a smooth and speedy recovery for their young star.

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