What Roki Sasaki declining Japanese team offer means for LA Dodgers

The Dodgers had their eyes on Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki long before he captured international attention during the World Baseball Classic last year. The Dodgers have had Asia-based scouts keeping an eye on him since he was in high school, and they've been following his years through NPB ever since. Andrew Friedman has even taken multiple trips out to Japan to watch him pitch live.

Although Sasaki's been pictured wearing Padres gear, which fellow Samurai Japan pitcher Yu Darvish gifted to all of his teammates during the WBC, the Dodgers will be the team to watch when Sasaki eventually makes the move over to MLB. On top of their longstanding relationship with him, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are in LA, and the Dodgers just won the World Series.

On Sunday, Sasaki declined an offer from his NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, which set off a couple of alarm bells for Dodgers fans that his time to come over to the States might finally be here.

However, we shouldn't get too excited yet.

Roki Sasaki declined an offer from his NPB team, but Dodgers fans shouldn't get too excited yet

Last year, Sasaki reportedly withdrew from the Japanese players' union and didn't settle on a contract with the Marines until late in the offseason, as he was apparently at odds with the Marines on when he would be posted to MLB. The Marines have all the incentive in the world to keep him in Japan until he's 25.

Per international posting regulations, if Sasaki were to enter the MLB market before he's 25, he would only qualify to be signed as an amateur free agent, which would severely limit the payday both him and the Marines would get upon his signing. Ohtani and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters decided to take the hit when he signed with the Angels in 2018, and the Angels got him for a song. Yamamoto waited until he was 25, which is what led to his record-breaking $325 million contract.

Based on those terms, and the fact that Sasaki is a sensation for the Marines, it would be hard for them to find any reason to part ways with him when they could simply opt to keep him for another two seasons.

It's possible that Sasaki might actually get his way this time, and follow in Ohtani's footsteps by breaking away early. The Dodgers do have international bonus pool money that they could put toward a Sasaki contract. However, we should keep our expectations tempered. It might still be a while before we see him make his MLB debut.