Dodgers: Potential 2018 Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Targets

OF Joc Pederson/OF Alex Verdugo/C Keibert Ruiz/RHSP Mitchell White/1B & 3B Edwin Rios to the Detroit Tigers for RHSP Michael Fulmer/RHRP Shane Greene

I realize this proposal might not sit well with fans of the Dodgers farm system…or Joc fans for that matter!.  Hear me out.  Fulmer is two years removed from a season that saw take the AL Rookie of the Year award, in which he went 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA and posting a great 1.119 WHIP. Last year, he had some elbow issues which resulted in surgery at the end of the season, and have led Detroit to bring him along slowly this spring.  Fulmer is healthy according to Detroit and will be ready to start the season in a couple of weeks.   We will know by the trade deadline how that elbow is holding up.

Fulmer is a former #1 draft pick of the NY Mets, who traded him to the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes.  Fulmer has right-handed ace written all over him and is only 25.  He would be the perfect compliment to Clayton Kershaw in the rotation.  I also don’t see him blocking Buehler or Urias.  Hyun Jin Ryu will be a free agent after next season, and Rich Hill has one more year on his deal after this season as he approaches his 40th birthday.  So, rotation openings are coming.  Plus, as the saying goes, you can never have enough pitching!

What do the Dodgers lose exactly in this trade?  Well, I predict Joc will spend most of this year in the minors trying to get right.  Verdugo will also join Joc in the AAA outfield to refine his game.  I see both players as expendable talent.  Regardless of how long Matt Kemp’s stay is, Andrew Toles, Chris Taylor, and Yasiel Puig will be manning the Dodgers outfield for a few years.  Puig won’t be a free agent for two more years, while Taylor and Toles can’t be free agents till after the 2021 and 2022 seasons respectively.  White is a talented young righty, but again we have a few (check out MLB Prospect Watch).

Rios is best suited for the AL where he can DH.  Rios has a long swing and profiles as power-hitting DH, and first baseman at best defensively.  Ruiz is probably the hardest to swallow parting with here.  Ruiz is one of the top 100 prospects in the game and is currently rated as the third-best catching prospect in baseball.  Once again though, catching is a position of depth for the Dodgers at the major and minor league levels.  Though it is likely, Yasmani Grandal will walk after this season as a free agent, the Dodgers have Austin Barnes and a very capable potential back-up in Kyle Farmer.  Not to mention, the organization has two other top catching prospects in Will Smith and Connor Wong.

Greene will give the Dodgers a strong right-handed set up man for the pen.  He may be sorely needed if Tom Koehler can’t rebound from his injury nor adjust to relieving as planned, and/or Pedro Baez can’t take his game to the next level.  Greene had a 2.66 ERA last year while striking out 73 batters in 67 innings with 9 saves.

The trade really makes sense from a financial perspective for both teams.   Fulmer will be in line for a big arbitration raise which the Tigers might not be able to afford.  Also, the Tigers are in a full rebuild and would benefit from adding some young talent to their organization.  In 2018, Fulmer will only be earning about $551,000, and the Dodgers would only be responsible for half of that since they will have acquired him at mid-season.  Pederson and Greene’s salaries are both around $2 mil, so that money is a wash.

Beyond 2018, the Dodgers will be in line to provide Fulmer an extension and buy out his arbitration years, and still, have money left over to resign Kershaw.  Of note, Fulmer also serves as “ace” insurance should Kershaw do the unthinkable and leave LA.  One last thought on this trade, nothing against Ryu, but maybe this trade needs to get made even if the current 5 starters are healthy.  Food for thought.

This trade would help both the Dodgers and the TIgers.  The Dodgers gain a frontline starter and quality reliever, while the Tigers add more youth to their youth movement and avoid committing a large salary to Fulmer during a window in which they might not compete.  My next proposal will also benefit both teams and further shore up the Dodger bullpen.